国贸期货黑色金属周报-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The black metal industry is currently in a weak state, with the narrative of "weak supply and demand" in the steel industry, and the off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The prices of various products such as rebar, coking coal, coke, and iron ore are under pressure [3][5][7][35][85] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - Supply: The daily average pig iron output has declined for 3 consecutive weeks to around 242, and it may continue to decline slowly. The raw material support is weak, and the trigger conditions for rapid market - based production cuts are not fully met [7] - Demand: There is no significant weakening in demand for now, but there are concerns about the sustainability of demand, especially the possible decline in steel exports. The SMM high - frequency export data reached a high point in May [7] - Inventory: It can still maintain seasonal destocking, with a low total inventory level, and the industry is in a state of active destocking [7] - Basis/Spread: The basis has slightly expanded, and the futures price remains at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the basis of rb2505 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 79, a slight expansion of 15 from the previous week [7] - Profit: Long - process steel production still has profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, mostly in the negative range [7] - Valuation: The production links in the industrial chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuations and still room for compression in absolute valuations [7] - Macro and Policy: There may be fluctuations in the trade war, and there is a short - term vacuum in macro - policies. There is no new definite information on industrial production restrictions [7] - Investment View: It is recommended to wait and see. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the next important observation window is the major meeting in July [7] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and open - position management and appropriately rotate inventories. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar when it is high. For spot - futures trading, conduct positive basis trading for hot - rolled coil [7] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: The off - season pressure is gradually being realized. The apparent demand for five major steel products is slightly better than expected, but the overall off - season pressure is increasing. The pig iron output continues to decline, and many steel mills choose to carry out timely maintenance [35] - Coking Coal Supply: Domestic coal mines face increasing shipment pressure, with continued production cuts and inventory accumulation. Mongolian coal prices have collectively declined, and the price difference between domestic and international seaborne coal remains large [35] - Coke Supply: Coke supply is sufficient. Although the production has decreased slightly this week, coke enterprises still have profits due to the rapid decline in the cost of coking coal [35] - Inventory: Downstream enterprises control the arrival of goods, and upstream enterprises face increasing shipment pressure. The inventory of coal and coke continues to show a bearish trend [35] - Basis/Spread: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts [35] - Profit: Steel mills still have good profits, but some have reduced production. Coke enterprises still have profits despite the decline in data [35] - Summary: The market continues the previous downward trend, and the black chain index continues to trade on the off - season and the collapse of raw material costs. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for coal and coke [35] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, mainly short. For arbitrage, conduct a positive spread trade between JM9 and JM1 [35] 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply: The shipment has shown a seasonal rebound, and the overall supply is in a neutral state. Attention should be paid to the possible significant increase in shipment due to the annual and quarterly production - volume rush of some mines in June [85] - Demand: The pig iron output of steel mills has continued to decline, mainly due to the routine maintenance of large blast furnaces. The steel mills' profits have shrunk, and there are concerns about the stability of steel exports [85] - Inventory: With the expected increase in supply in June and the downward trend of pig iron output, port inventories will gradually stabilize or even show a slight increase [85] - Profit: Although the steel mills' profits have declined, the pressure is not great, and the pig iron output can still remain at a high level in the short term [85] - Valuation: The short - term valuation is relatively neutral as the pig iron output is at a high level [85] - Macro and Policy: There is an expectation of increased supply in the furnace material sector in June, and the pig iron output is at risk of decline. The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state [85] - Investment View: The market is expected to be volatile [85] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, consider shorting when the price is above $100. For arbitrage, close all positive spread trades between the September and January contracts [85]