冠通每日交易策略-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - Crude oil prices rebounded during the Dragon Boat Festival due to factors such as OPEC+ not exceeding production increase expectations, Canadian wildfires affecting production, and Ukraine's bombing of Russian strategic bombers. However, there is still downward pressure on crude oil due to factors like high supply pressure, the impact of trade wars, and Kazakhstan's over - production [3][5]. - The upward momentum of the soybean meal futures has weakened, and the futures price will show a volatile trend due to sufficient domestic soybean supply and stable terminal demand [6]. - Copper is still in a volatile range. If the copper tariff policy becomes clear, it may lead to an expectation of tight supply and benefit copper prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent tariff policy and downstream demand resilience [12]. - Asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14]. - PP and plastic are expected to show weak and volatile trends due to factors such as high inventory pressure, slow downstream recovery, and the impact of tariffs [15][17]. - PVC is in a weak and volatile state due to factors such as high inventory pressure, weak demand, and the impact of anti - dumping policies [18]. - The soybean oil futures market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term due to high inventory and weak terminal demand [20]. - The urea futures price is not expected to fall deeply, but the upside space for the market rebound during the agricultural demand period may be limited due to relatively loose supply and demand [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Varieties Crude Oil - International crude oil prices rebounded during the Dragon Boat Festival. OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. Canadian wildfires led to a shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production. The US government's sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry were upgraded, and Trump threatened to increase sanctions on Iran and Russia. However, there is still downward pressure on crude oil due to high supply and the impact of trade wars [3][5]. Soybean Meal - The main 09 - contract of soybean meal opened lower and fluctuated. Internationally, the US soybean - producing states may have higher temperatures and more precipitation. Brazil's soybean planting area is expected to increase slightly, but the yield is expected to decrease. Domestically, soybean supply will be sufficient in the future, and the inventory of soybean meal is expected to increase, so the futures price will be volatile [6]. Futures Market Summary - As of the close on June 3, most domestic futures main contracts fell. 20 - rubber, synthetic rubber, coking coal, and glass fell by more than 3%. In terms of gains, silver futures rose nearly 3%, and SC crude oil rose more than 2%. Stock index futures mostly rose slightly, while most bond futures fell [8]. - As of 15:05, funds flowed into contracts such as Shanghai copper 2507 and Shanghai silver 2508, and flowed out of contracts such as crude oil 2507 and rapeseed meal 2509 [10]. Core Content of Each Variety Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and closed slightly lower. The US government's tariff policy on copper has increased market expectations. Although the supply of refined copper is high, the demand is supported by good PMI data. The copper price is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the tariff policy and downstream demand [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate continued to decline, and the downstream demand was weak. The US sanctions on Iran's crude oil exports and the situation in Venezuela need to be monitored. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [13][14]. PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the inventory pressure was high. With the restart of some devices and the slow recovery of downstream demand, PP is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [15]. Plastic - The start - up rate of plastic decreased, and the downstream demand was weak. The inventory was at a relatively high level, and the impact of tariffs and new production capacity also affected the market. Plastic is expected to be weak and volatile [16][17]. PVC - The start - up rate of PVC increased, but the downstream demand was still weak. The anti - dumping policy of India and high inventory pressure affected the market. PVC is expected to be weak and volatile [18]. Soybean Oil - The main 09 - contract of soybean oil opened low and rebounded. With sufficient domestic soybean supply and high soybean crushing volume, the inventory of soybean oil increased, and the terminal demand was weak. The futures price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [19][20]. Urea - The urea price opened high and closed lower. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in a gap period. Although there is agricultural demand expectation, the upside space for the market rebound may be limited [21].