Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price trend of corrugated and containerboard paper in the second half of the year is expected to be low at first and then high, with seasonal demand as the main driving factor [3][72] - Supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to seasonal changes in demand. The profit of corrugated and containerboard paper is expected to remain at a low level compared to historical figures, with a similar pattern of being low at first and then high, in sync with the price [3][72] Summary by Directory 1. Review - Correlation Analysis: Containerboard and corrugated paper have a strong correlation, but a weak correlation with softwood pulp spot and pulp futures. The correlation between containerboard and softwood pulp is above 0.68, while the correlation with pulp futures is only 0.45 [8][10] - Historical Review: From 2014 - 2016, the supply - demand pattern of packaging paper was stable, and prices were weak. From 2017 - 2018, supply - side reform, restrictions on foreign waste imports, and the rapid development of e - commerce drove up paper prices. From 2018 - 2020, Sino - US trade friction, the public health event, and new capacity led to price fluctuations. From 2020 - 2021, the tightening of waste paper import policies and economic recovery boosted prices. Since 2022, slow economic recovery and continuous capacity expansion have affected the market [12] 2. Supply - Annual Data: In 2024, the production of containerboard was about 29.86 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 6.4%), and the production of corrugated paper was 22.85 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.7%). The capacity utilization rate of both was 63%. The overall supply - demand pattern of the industry was in surplus [19] - 2025 Production Situation: In the first half of 2025, 1.65 million tons of containerboard and corrugated paper were put into production, accounting for about 2% of the total domestic capacity at the end of 2024. In the second half, about 2.7 million tons of capacity are expected to be put into production, accounting for about 3.2% of the total domestic capacity at the end of 2024. By the end of 2025, the domestic containerboard capacity is expected to be 50.11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 4.9%), and the corrugated paper capacity is expected to be 38.02 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 4.4%) [27] - Profit Level: Although the price of finished paper has been declining this year, the decline in raw material prices has offset the profit compression to some extent. As of late May, the after - tax gross profit per ton of corrugated paper was about 70 yuan, and that of containerboard was about 470 yuan, which can support short - term production [32] - Weekly Supply: Due to capacity expansion and decent profits, the production of containerboard and corrugated paper this year is at a relatively high level compared to historical data. Last week, the production of corrugated paper was 480,000 tons with a 61% operating rate, and the production of containerboard was 620,000 tons with a 62% operating rate. Short - term supply is expected to remain sufficient [35] - Import: From 2016 to 2024, the import volume of waste paper decreased by 2.79 million tons, while the import volume of waste paper pulp increased by 370,000 tons. The import volume of corrugated paper increased by 200,000 tons, and that of containerboard increased by 465,000 tons. In 2025, the import supply has decreased. From January to April, the import volume of corrugated paper was 979,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 15%), and that of containerboard was 1.609 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 16%) [38][41] 3. Demand - Annual Terminal Demand: The terminal consumption of corrugated and containerboard paper has been steadily increasing. In 2024, the domestic annual consumption of corrugated paper was 25.65 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.6%), and that of containerboard was 35.61 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 6.2%). From 2014 - 2024, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of corrugated paper consumption was about 2.6%, and that of containerboard was about 3.3% [47] - Seasonal Demand: The apparent consumption of containerboard and corrugated paper has obvious seasonal characteristics. The first four months of the year, June, and the fourth quarter are usually peak consumption seasons. From January to April 2025, the apparent consumption of containerboard was 11.76 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 7%), and that of corrugated paper was 8.486 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 4%). The potential difference in expectations lies in whether Sino - US trade friction will affect the demand of export - oriented enterprises [49] - Export: Before the tightening of foreign waste import policies, domestic corrugated and containerboard paper mainly met domestic demand. After the policy change, the export volume decreased significantly, and currently, the export - to - domestic - demand ratio of both is less than 1%. The proportion of the US in China's corrugated and containerboard paper export market is low, and tariff policies have a low direct impact on packaging paper exports [55] - Inventory: As of April 2024, the social inventory of containerboard and corrugated paper was at a five - year low, and the destocking process was nearly complete. However, enterprise inventory was at a relatively high level and still needed to be reduced [63] 4. Market Outlook - Corrugated Paper Supply - Demand Balance: In 2025, the production is expected to be 24.049 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.2%), the import volume is expected to be 2.202 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 18%), the export volume is expected to be 74,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 20%), and the consumption is expected to be 26.214 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 2.2%). Inventory is expected to decline slightly [68] - Containerboard Supply - Demand Balance: In 2025, the production is expected to be 32.722 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 9.6%), the import volume is expected to be 4.562 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%), the export volume is expected to be 188,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of 40%), and the consumption is expected to be 37.279 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 4.7%). Inventory is expected to decline slightly [71]
季节性需求主导，包装纸走势或前低后高
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-03 13:52