玻璃纯碱(FG&SA)：负反馈交易，产业价格承压

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: bearish [3] - Soda ash investment view: oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Glass is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices under pressure. Soda ash has acceptable current supply and demand, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: bearish. Daily output is 157,700 tons, up 0.64% from the 22nd. Industry开工率 is 76.01%, up 0.68 ppts; capacity utilization is 78.62%, up 0.42 ppts. Supply is increasing this week but may decline next week [3] - Demand: bearish. Demand expectation weakens as the off - season approaches, but there is support from trade talks and policies. Mid - term real estate situation is poor [3] - Inventory: neutral. Enterprise inventory is 67.662 million heavy cases, down 0.16% month - on - month, up 14.06% year - on - year. Inventory days are 30.4 days, down 0.2 days [3] - Basis/spread: neutral. Basis strengthened this week; 09 - 01 spread oscillated [3] - Valuation: neutral. Price is at a low level, but cost support weakens [3] - Macro and policy: neutral. No macro impact for now [3] - Trading strategy: One - sided: short on rallies; Arbitrage: long soda ash and short glass [3] Soda Ash - Supply: neutral. This week's output is 685,000 tons, up 3.19% month - on - month. Supply is rising as maintenance resumes, but may decline later [4] - Demand: neutral. Direct demand is acceptable, but terminal demand is not ideal, with downstream purchasing on demand [4] - Inventory: neutral. Total factory inventory is 1.6243 million tons, up 1.37% from Monday [4] - Basis/spread: neutral. Basis strengthened this week; 09 - 01 spread remained stable [4] - Valuation: neutral. Price center moves down, and cost support weakens [4] - Macro and policy: neutral. No macro driving force [4] - Trading strategy: One - sided: no position; Arbitrage: hold long soda ash and short glass, double - buy options [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Futures price was weak, and spot price declined. The main contract closed at 982 (-18), and the Shahe spot price was 1072 (-12) [6] Soda Ash - Price oscillated downward. The main contract closed at 1199 (-54), and the Shahe spot price was 1243 (-78) [10] Spread/Basis - Soda ash 09 - 01 spread oscillated, and basis strengthened; Glass 09 - 01 spread oscillated, and basis strengthened [19] 3. Supply and Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Output was stable. Daily output was 157,700 tons, up 0.64% from the 22nd. Two production lines restarted this week, and one started production. One line may undergo cold repair next week [22] - Production profit decreased. The weekly average profit of natural - gas - fueled glass was - 167.97 yuan/ton, down 7.14 yuan/ton [22] Glass Demand - Downstream deep - processing orders were weak. The average order days of deep - processing enterprises were 10.4 days, up 0.5% month - on - month, down 7.2% year - on - year [25] - Real estate mid - and back - end completion data was poor. From January to April, construction area decreased by 9.7% year - on - year, new construction area decreased by 23.8%, and completion area decreased by 16.9% [26] Soda Ash Supply - Output increased this week to 685,000 tons, up 3.19% month - on - month. But overall supply may decline later due to maintenance [31] - Alkali plant profit was acceptable. Ammonia - soda process profit was 67.20 yuan/ton, up 2.75% month - on - month; Dual - ton profit of the combined - soda process was 215 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton [31] Soda Ash Demand - Direct demand was acceptable, with stable demand from float and photovoltaic sectors. But terminal demand was not good, and downstream purchased on demand [32] - Inventory increased. Total factory inventory was 1.6243 million tons, up 1.37% from Monday [32]