资产配置日报：万众期待的通话-20250603

Market Overview - The market sentiment is relatively optimistic, with a broad increase in stock prices and a slight decline in the bond market as of June 3 [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend Index rose by 0.43%, 0.31%, and 0.37% respectively, indicating a strong market performance [1] - The technology sector showed recovery, with the STAR 50 and Hang Seng Technology indices increasing by 0.48% and 1.08% respectively [1] International Trade and Tariffs - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs has been extended, with the U.S. International Trade Court and the Trump administration required to respond by June 5 and June 9 [2] - Trump's recent comments have escalated tensions, raising steel import tariffs from 25% to 50%, which has negatively impacted global risk appetite [2] - However, there is a shift in trading logic from escalating conflict to potential easing, supported by recent statements from U.S. officials regarding possible direct talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank's routine short-term liquidity withdrawal has led to a decrease in funding rates, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [4] - The overnight rates opened at 1.55% and closed between 1.50% and 1.53%, indicating stable liquidity conditions [4] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming maturity of significant amounts of bank liabilities, which may influence banks' strategies in the short term [4] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is experiencing a rebound, with the total trading volume at 1.16 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease from previous levels [5] - The "big-cap core + small-cap" strategy remains favored, with significant gains in bank stocks, particularly in joint-stock and rural commercial banks [6] - Consumer sectors, particularly beauty care and textiles, have shown strong performance, with respective increases of 3.86% and 2.53% [6] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.53% and 1.08%, respectively, with new consumption sectors leading the gains [7] - The AH share premium index has decreased, indicating lower relative value for Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [7] - There was a notable net inflow of 3.905 billion yuan from southbound funds, highlighting the importance of this capital in the Hong Kong market [7] Overall Market Sentiment - The market is pricing in a potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, although caution is advised regarding the unpredictability of Trump's tariff policies [8] - The current low volatility and high crowding in the CSI 2000 suggest that maintaining positions and seeking opportunities in lower-priced sectors may be a prudent strategy [8]