如何基于个股股价跳跃行为做择时？

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Jump Imbalance Indicator - Model Name: Jump Imbalance Indicator - Model Construction Idea: Measures the difference in the strength of upward and downward jumps in stock prices[2] - Model Construction Process: - Formula: $D_{i,t}^{N J}=\frac{\mathrm{No.of~Pjumps}_{i}^{d}\mathrm{\-~No.of~Njumps}_{i}^{d}}{\mathrm{No.of~Tjumps}_{i}^{d}}$[14] - Parameters: - No.of Pjumps: Number of days with positive jumps in the past 20 trading days - No.of Njumps: Number of days with negative jumps in the past 20 trading days - No.of Tjumps: Number of days with jumps in the past 20 trading days[15] - Model Evaluation: Effective for timing the market but not outstanding[20] - Model Testing Results: - Annualized return: 6.23% - Sharpe ratio: 0.57 - Profit-loss ratio: 1.46 - Annualized excess return: 4.48% - Sharpe ratio (excess): 0.34[22] Implied Jump Imbalance Indicator - Model Name: Implied Jump Imbalance Indicator - Model Construction Idea: Reflects the jump information of stocks not affected by market jumps, potentially containing expectations of future performance or insider trading probability[23] - Model Construction Process: - Formula: $D_{i,t}^{IJ}=\frac{\text{No.of Pumps}_{i}|\text{No Market Jump-No.of Numps}_{i}|\text{No Market Jump}}{\text{No.of Tumps}_{i}|\text{No Market Jump}}$[23] - Parameters: - No.of Pjumps | No Market Jump: Number of days with positive jumps when the market index did not jump - No.of Njumps | No Market Jump: Number of days with negative jumps when the market index did not jump - No.of Tjumps | No Market Jump: Number of days with jumps when the market index did not jump[23] - Model Evaluation: Shows better performance compared to the Jump Imbalance Indicator[31] - Model Testing Results: - Annualized return: 9.93% - Sharpe ratio: 0.82 - Calmar ratio: 0.75 - Profit-loss ratio: 2.05 - Annualized excess return: 8.46% - Sharpe ratio (excess): 0.77 - Calmar ratio (excess): 1.12[34] Jump Imbalance Dispersion Indicator - Model Name: Jump Imbalance Dispersion Indicator - Model Construction Idea: Represents the dispersion of jump imbalance among stocks, indicating market sentiment divergence[39] - Model Construction Process: - Formula: $\Delta J_{R_{Std}}$[39] - Parameters: - Standard deviation of implied jump imbalance indicator among stocks[39] - Model Evaluation: Effective for timing the market[39] - Model Testing Results: - Annualized return: 9.41% - Sharpe ratio: 0.74 - Calmar ratio: 0.70 - Profit-loss ratio: 1.50 - Annualized excess return: 7.91% - Sharpe ratio (excess): 0.69 - Calmar ratio (excess): 0.72[42] Composite Indicator - Model Name: Composite Indicator - Model Construction Idea: Combines implied jump imbalance indicator and jump imbalance dispersion indicator for better market timing[40] - Model Construction Process: - Formula: $\Delta J_{R} > 0 \text{ and } \Delta J_{R_{Std}} < 0$[40] - Parameters: - Implied jump imbalance indicator - Jump imbalance dispersion indicator[40] - Model Evaluation: Shows significant improvement in market timing effectiveness[40] - Model Testing Results: - Annualized return: 16.5% - Sharpe ratio: 1.28 - Calmar ratio: 2.41 - Annualized excess return: 15.49% - Sharpe ratio (excess): 0.82 - Calmar ratio (excess): 0.88[45] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Jump Imbalance Factor - Factor Name: Jump Imbalance Factor - Factor Construction Idea: Measures the difference in the strength of upward and downward jumps in stock prices[2] - Factor Construction Process: - Formula: $D_{i,t}^{N J}=\frac{\mathrm{No.of~Pjumps}_{i}^{d}\mathrm{\-~No.of~Njumps}_{i}^{d}}{\mathrm{No.of~Tjumps}_{i}^{d}}$[14] - Parameters: - No.of Pjumps: Number of days with positive jumps in the past 20 trading days - No.of Njumps: Number of days with negative jumps in the past 20 trading days - No.of Tjumps: Number of days with jumps in the past 20 trading days[15] - Factor Evaluation: Effective for timing the market but not outstanding[20] - Factor Testing Results: - Annualized return: 6.23% - Sharpe ratio: 0.57 - Profit-loss ratio: 1.46 - Annualized excess return: 4.48% - Sharpe ratio (excess): 0.34[22] Implied Jump Imbalance Factor - Factor Name: Implied Jump Imbalance Factor - Factor Construction Idea: Reflects the jump information of stocks not affected by market jumps, potentially containing expectations of future performance or insider trading probability[23] - Factor Construction Process: - Formula: $D_{i,t}^{IJ}=\frac{\text{No.of Pumps}_{i}|\text{No Market Jump-No.of Numps}_{i}|\text{No Market Jump}}{\text{No.of Tumps}_{i}|\text{No Market Jump}}$[23] - Parameters: - No.of Pjumps | No Market Jump: Number of days with positive jumps when the market index did not jump - No.of Njumps | No Market Jump: Number of days with negative jumps when the market index did not jump - No.of Tjumps | No Market Jump: Number of days with jumps when the market index did not jump[23] - Factor Evaluation: Shows better performance compared to the Jump Imbalance Factor[31] - Factor Testing Results: - Annualized return: 9.93% - Sharpe ratio: 0.82 - Calmar ratio: 0.75 - Profit-loss ratio: 2.05 - Annualized excess return: 8.46% - Sharpe ratio (excess): 0.77 - Calmar ratio (excess): 1.12[34] Jump Imbalance Dispersion Factor - Factor Name: Jump Imbalance Dispersion Factor - Factor Construction Idea: Represents the dispersion of jump imbalance among stocks, indicating market sentiment divergence[39] - Factor Construction Process: - Formula: $\Delta J_{R_{Std}}$[39] - Parameters: - Standard deviation of implied jump imbalance indicator among stocks[39] - Factor Evaluation: Effective for timing the market[39] - Factor Testing Results: - Annualized return: 9.41% - Sharpe ratio: 0.74 - Calmar ratio: 0.70 - Profit-loss ratio: 1.50 - Annualized excess return: 7.91% - Sharpe ratio (excess): 0.69 - Calmar ratio (excess): 0.72[42] Composite Factor - Factor Name: Composite Factor - Factor Construction Idea: Combines implied jump imbalance factor and jump imbalance dispersion factor for better market timing[40] - Factor Construction Process: - Formula: $\Delta J_{R} > 0 \text{ and } \Delta J_{R_{Std}} < 0$[40] - Parameters: - Implied jump imbalance factor - Jump imbalance dispersion factor[40] - Factor Evaluation: Shows significant improvement in market timing effectiveness[40] - Factor Testing Results: - Annualized return: 16.5% - Sharpe ratio: 1.28 - Calmar ratio: 2.41 - Annualized excess return: 15.49% - Sharpe ratio (excess): 0.82 - Calmar ratio (excess): 0.88[45] Factor Backtesting Results Jump Imbalance Factor - Annualized return: 6.23% - Sharpe ratio: 0.57 - Profit-loss ratio: