财新中国制造业PMI录得48.3

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific investment suggestions are given for different sectors: - Financial Sector - Gold: Short - term market in a multi - empty game, gold remains in a volatile pattern [13]. - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. - Treasury Futures: The strategy of buying on dips and holding for gains is still applicable [22]. - Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index): The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - US Stock Index Futures: US stocks are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to ongoing tariff risks [29]. - Commodity Sector - Black Metals - 动力煤: Coal prices may resume a downward trend if replenishment slows [31]. - 铁矿石: There is still some downward space for iron ore prices after the pressure is realized [32]. - 螺纹钢/热轧卷板: Adopt a weak - thinking approach in the near term and hedge on spot price rebounds [44]. - 农产品 - 豆油/菜油/棕榈油: Palm oil is expected to remain volatile, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered; rapeseed oil may experience a significant decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [35]. - 豆粕: Futures prices are expected to be volatile; the basis of domestic soybean meal spot will remain under pressure [38]. - 玉米淀粉: CS07 - C07 may maintain a low - level volatile pattern [40]. - 玉米: Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - 有色金属 - 多晶硅: Consider long positions on far - month contracts at low prices, and pay attention to position management for left - side building [48]. - 铅: Short - term observation is recommended, and start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - 锌: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices in the short term, and consider long - short option opportunities; maintain a long - short spread strategy in the medium term [53]. - 工业硅: Close short positions; pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [55]. - 碳酸锂: Do not chase short positions at the current level; shift short positions to other months when the spread is appropriate [57]. - 铜: Continue to observe the changes in the Shanghai copper structure; the disk is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to observe [61]. - 镍: Pay attention to Sell Put opportunities [64]. - 能源化工 - 原油: The short - term continuous rebound drive is weak [66]. - 碳排放: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [68]. - 烧碱: The downward space of the 09 contract is limited [70]. - 纸浆: The disk is expected to be volatile [72]. - PVC: The disk may be volatile and weak [73]. - PX: Short - term volatility is weak, and try long positions in the medium - long term [77]. - PTA: The price is expected to correct marginally in the short term [79]. - 尿素: Treat it as volatile in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [81]. - 瓶片: Consider building long positions on processing margins at low prices [84]. - 苯乙烯: The styrene - crude oil spread is expected to be weak and volatile, and the absolute price depends more on macro - guidance [87]. - 纯碱: Maintain a view of shorting at high prices in the medium term [88]. - 浮法玻璃: The spot price and disk are difficult to improve before the inventory of original sheet manufacturers is substantially reduced [90]. - 航运 Index - 集装箱运价: The probability of the freight rate center rising is still high; pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [91]. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the financial and commodity markets. In the financial market, inflation control by the Federal Reserve, employment data, and trade policies are the key factors affecting the trends of various financial products. In the commodity market, factors such as supply and demand, seasonal changes, and policy adjustments have significant impacts on commodity prices. Overall, most markets are expected to be volatile, and different investment strategies are recommended according to the characteristics of each market. 3. Summary by Catalog 1. Financial News and Comments - 宏观策略（黄金） - News: Fed official Bostic said there is still a long way to fight inflation, and there may be a rate cut this year depending on economic conditions; US April JOLTs job openings were 7.391 million, higher than expected [12][13]. - Comment: Gold prices are in a volatile pattern. The lack of a breakthrough in the upward movement is due to factors such as the higher - than - expected number of job openings and the hawkish stance of Fed officials [13]. - Investment Suggestion: The short - term market is in a multi - empty game, and gold remains in a volatile pattern [13]. - 宏观策略（股指期货） - News: During the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, UnionPay and NetsUnion processed payment transactions with an amount 3.4% higher than the previous year; the State Council Premier met with the Japanese trade delegation; the Ministry of Commerce launched the "Service Consumption Season" activity [14][15][16]. - Comment: The market maintained a high risk preference after the holiday, with a significant seesaw effect and a sharp rise in micro - cap stocks [17][18]. - Investment Suggestion: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. - 宏观策略（国债期货） - News: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month; the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [20][21]. - Comment: The foundation for economic fundamental recovery is not solid, but the bond market's reaction to fundamental data is dull. There are still short - end carry problems and market negative disturbances [21]. - Investment Suggestion: The strategy of buying on dips and holding for gains is still applicable [22]. - 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） - News: Fed理事Cook said tariffs may exacerbate inflation and weaken employment; the South Korean presidential term of Lee Jae - myung officially began; the US Trade Representative's Office reminded trading partners of the end of the tariff suspension period [23][24]. - Comment: The US tariff negotiation needs to be accelerated, and the trend of Trump's tariff policy change remains unchanged. The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - Investment Suggestion: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - 宏观策略（美国股指期货） - News: The US raised the import steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% (25% for the UK); Fed official Bostic said the central bank can be patient under tariff uncertainties; US April JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased [26][27][28]. - Comment: The unexpected increase in job openings eases concerns about economic downturn, but the employment market still shows signs of weakness. US stocks are expected to be volatile [28]. - Investment Suggestion: US stocks are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to ongoing tariff risks [29]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - 黑色金属（动力煤） - News: Since April 2025, China's coal production capacity has continued to be released, and coal imports have decreased [30]. - Comment: Coal prices have stabilized slightly due to power plant replenishment. If replenishment slows, coal prices may resume a downward trend [30]. - Investment Suggestion: Coal prices may resume a downward trend if replenishment slows [31]. - 黑色金属（铁矿石） - News: The OECD lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [32]. - Comment: The fundamentals of iron ore are seasonally weak, and there is pressure on port inventories to accumulate. There is still some downward space for prices [32]. - Investment Suggestion: There is still some downward space for iron ore prices after the pressure is realized [32]. - 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） - News: India's palm oil imports in May are expected to increase by 87% to 600,000 tons; Canada's Prime Minister hopes China will cancel tariffs on Canadian agricultural products [33][34]. - Comment: Palm oil prices are supported by improved demand but lack continuous upward momentum; rapeseed oil prices may decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [34]. - Investment Suggestion: Palm oil is expected to remain volatile, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered; rapeseed oil may experience a significant decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [35]. - 农产品（豆粕） - News: The soybean planting area in Mato Grosso in the 25/26 season is expected to increase by 1.67%; port soybean inventories and oil - mill soybean meal inventories continue to rise [36][37][38]. - Comment: The first US soybean good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected, but there is no short - term speculation theme. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure continues to increase [38]. - Investment Suggestion: Futures prices are expected to be volatile; the basis of domestic soybean meal spot will remain under pressure [38]. - 农产品（玉米淀粉） - News: The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong are negative [39]. - Comment: Starch losses continue to expand, but the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. The regional spread may decline slightly after large - scale wheat substitution [39]. - Investment Suggestion: CS07 - C07 may maintain a low - level volatile pattern [40]. - 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） - News: The auto - dealer chamber of commerce called for抵制 "price war" competition; China's heavy - truck sales in May were 83,000 units [41][43]. - Comment: Steel prices are weakly volatile. The trading logic is still dominated by weak demand expectations, and the negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists [43]. - Investment Suggestion: Adopt a weak - thinking approach in the near term and hedge on spot price rebounds [44]. - 农产品（玉米） - News: The national average corn price on June 3 increased by 0.19% from the previous trading day [45]. - Comment: Spot prices are slightly stronger, while futures prices decline slightly. Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - Investment Suggestion: Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - 有色金属（多晶硅） - News: The national new - energy grid - connected consumption situation in April 2025 was announced; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,100 lots [46][47]. - Comment: The disk may show a reverse - spread logic, but whether the structure can completely turn to contango is uncertain. The supply - demand situation in June is expected to improve, but the market is still affected by factors such as enterprise production and downstream inventory [47]. - Investment Suggestion: Consider long positions on far - month contracts at low prices, and pay attention to position management for left - side building [48]. - 有色金属（铅） - News: On June 2, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $22.17 per ton; SMM lead - ingot social inventories increased [49]. - Comment: The domestic lead - concentrate supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The lead price is in a short - position pattern, but the short - selling profit - loss ratio is not good. Pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - Investment Suggestion: Short - term observation is recommended, and start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - 有色金属（锌） - News: As of June 3, SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventories increased; on June 2, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $26.08 per ton [51][52]. - Comment: The zinc price declined with weakening macro - sentiment. The downstream demand is expected to weaken in June, and the supply is expected to increase. The disk is expected to be short - biased [52]. - Investment Suggestion: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices in the short term, and consider long - short option opportunities; maintain a long - short spread strategy in the medium term [53]. - 有色金属（工业硅） - News: The industrial silicon production in May 2025 was 307,700 tons [54]. - Comment: Some large factories in Xinjiang may suspend their resumption plans. The demand is not significantly improved. The spot price may bottom out, but the futures price is more affected by sentiment [54][55]. - Investment Suggestion: Close short positions; pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [55]. - 有色金属（碳酸锂） - News: Longpan Technology signed a sales contract for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials worth over 5 billion yuan [56]. - Comment: The monthly spread strengthened during the decline last week. Pay attention to the stability of the spot basis and the rhythm of warehouse - receipt generation [56]. - Investment Suggestion: Do not chase short positions at the current level; shift short positions to other months when the spread is appropriate [57]. - 有色金属（铜） - News: Teck Resources' Chilean copper mine will be shut down for about a month; Chile's copper production in April decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year; Panama approved the maintenance plan for First Quantum's copper mine [58][59][60]. - Comment: The market has different views on the macro - situation. The domestic inventory may accumulate weakly, while the LME inventory is expected to decrease. The disk is expected to be volatile [61]. - Investment Suggestion: Continue to observe the changes in the Shanghai copper structure; the disk is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to observe [61]. - 有色金属（镍） - News: PT Bumi Mineral Sulawesi signed a nickel - matte sales agreement; Vale signed a nickel - mine exploitation agreement; LME nickel inventories increased on June 3 [62][63][64]. - Comment: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The nickel - ore market is stable, and the nickel - iron price has risen slightly. The disk has support below but lacks upward drive [64]. - Investment Suggestion: Pay attention to Sell Put opportunities [64]. - 能源化工（原油） - News: The US API crude - oil inventory decreased in the week ending May 30 [65]. - Comment: Oil prices are volatile and rising. Geopolitical risks support oil prices, but the gasoline inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand needs to be observed [65]. - Investment Suggestion: The short - term continuous rebound drive is weak [66]. - 能源化工（碳排放） - News: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration encouraged key energy - consuming units to use green electricity [67]. - Comment: The policy will promote the development of green - electricity consumption and the green and low - carbon transformation of the power system [67]. - Investment Suggestion: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [68]. - 能源化工（烧碱） - News: On June 3, the liquid - caustic soda market price in Shandong was flexibly adjusted [69]. - Comment: The supply of liquid caustic soda decreased during the holiday, and the demand was stable. The price of the 09 contract is limited in its downward space [70]. - Investment Suggestion: The downward space of the 09 contract is limited [70]. - 能源化工（纸浆） - News: The import wood - pulp spot market price was mainly stable on June 3 [71]. - Comment: The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the macro - situation has temporarily stopped warming. The disk is expected to be volatile [71]. - Investment Suggestion: The disk is expected to be volatile [72]. - 能源化工（PVC） - News: The domestic PVC powder