申万宏源证券晨会报告-20250604

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities in the computer and media sectors, highlighting a potential bottom reversal based on the PB-ROE framework, which has proven effective in guiding industry rotation in mid-cycle perspectives [2][7] - The current PB-ROE positioning of the computer industry is compared to the telecommunications sector in late 2019, indicating a historical low in profitability and valuation, suggesting a potential for recovery [7] - The media sector also shows signs of improvement, with significant growth in net profit and revenue in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend despite previous downturns [7] Industry Performance Summary - The report notes that the computer sector is currently underweighted in active public fund portfolios, with a 3.5% holding compared to a required 4.5% based on performance benchmarks, indicating a potential for increased investment [7] - The analysis of TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) sectors reveals that typically, valuation improvements precede profit recovery during market reversals, with historical data supporting this trend [7][8] - The report identifies that the AI application sector is gaining traction, with a shift from hardware to software investments, particularly in the computer and media industries, as well as in Hong Kong internet companies [8]