渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.04）-20250604

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery with the May PMI data indicating a manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) of 49.5%, a non-manufacturing business activity index of 50.3%, and a composite PMI output index of 50.4% [2] - The production index increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.7%, attributed to a low base from April and improved US-China trade relations leading to a "export rush effect" [3] - New orders index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 49.8%, while new export orders increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5% due to the temporary suspension of certain tariffs [3] - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI rose by 1.5 percentage points to 50.7%, indicating a positive outlook for production and potential benefits for small and medium enterprises [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.3%, with the construction sector seeing a decline while the service sector experienced a minor increase [4] - The composite PMI output index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%, reflecting a synchronized recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [4] - The short-term outlook suggests that the "export rush effect" may continue due to a 90-day tariff exemption, although seasonal factors may exert downward pressure in June [4] Industry Research - The metal industry faces ongoing supply surplus pressures, with significant declines in lithium prices observed in May [6] - Steel demand is expected to remain weak in June due to weather factors, with prices likely to fluctuate [6] - Copper prices may experience short-term fluctuations due to seasonal demand and trade policy uncertainties, although domestic stimulus measures may provide some support [7] - Aluminum prices are anticipated to remain weak, influenced by traditional seasonal demand and ongoing uncertainties in international trade relations [7] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to increased supply from salt lake lithium extraction, with expectations of continued weakness in the short term [7] - The cobalt market shows no significant support for price increases, with a general expectation of price adjustments [7] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on Indonesia's nickel export policies [7] - The strategy for copper and aluminum suggests resilience in demand supported by domestic economic stimulus and potential improvements in overseas demand due to changes in EU tariff policies [8] - Long-term factors such as high US debt levels, inflation risks, and global geopolitical complexities are expected to support gold prices [8] - The rare earth sector is positioned for long-term growth driven by new demand from robotics and renewable energy sectors [8]