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Nuveen Municipal OPPORTUNITY FUND Inc：Narrower loss possible,4Q25 breakeven unlikely-20250604
NIONIO(NIO) Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2025-06-04 01:23

Investment Rating - Maintain HOLD rating for NIO Inc. with a target price of US4.00,downfromtheprevioustargetofUS4.00, down from the previous target of US5.00, indicating a potential upside of 13.3% from the current price of US3.53[4][9].CoreViews−NIO′smanagementtargetsbreakevenin4Q25,buttheassumptionsareviewedasunrealisticduetoheavyinvestmentsinbatteryswapandsaleschannels,whichrequiresignificantlyhighersalesvolumestoachievebreakeven[1][9].−TheFY25Esalesvolumeforecasthasbeencutby30,000unitsto350,000units,implyingasalesvolumeof235,000unitsin2H25E,oranaveragemonthlyvolumeofabout40,000units[2][9].−NIOisprojectedtoincuranetlossofRMB16.2billioninFY25E,whichisRMB0.2billionhigherthanthepriorforecastduetothereductioninsalesvolume[2][9].FinancialSummary−RevenueprojectionsforFY25EaresetatRMB92,972million,withaYoYgrowthof41.43.53 [4][9]. Core Views - NIO's management targets breakeven in 4Q25, but the assumptions are viewed as unrealistic due to heavy investments in battery swap and sales channels, which require significantly higher sales volumes to achieve breakeven [1][9]. - The FY25E sales volume forecast has been cut by 30,000 units to 350,000 units, implying a sales volume of 235,000 units in 2H25E, or an average monthly volume of about 40,000 units [2][9]. - NIO is projected to incur a net loss of RMB16.2 billion in FY25E, which is RMB0.2 billion higher than the prior forecast due to the reduction in sales volume [2][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB92,972 million, with a YoY growth of 41.4%, and gross margin expected to be 13.0% [3][11]. - The company is expected to continue facing operating losses, with projected operating profit of RMB(15,561.4) million in FY25E and net profit of RMB(16,241.9) million [3][11]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is projected at RMB(14,042.6) million, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability [3][11]. Earnings Summary - NIO's 1Q25 revenue was 2% lower than prior forecasts, with a gross profit margin of 7.6%, which is 0.7 percentage points lower than projected [9][10]. - The operating loss for 1Q25 was RMB6.4 billion, missing forecasts by RMB1.0 billion, primarily due to higher-than-expected SG&A expenses [9][10]. - Management's assumptions for achieving breakeven in 4Q25 include a sales volume of 150,000-160,000 units and a gross profit margin of 17%, which are considered overly optimistic [9][10]. Share Performance - NIO's market capitalization stands at approximately US7.93 billion, with a 52-week high of US7.21andalowofUS7.21 and a low of US3.14 [4][5]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 12.4% over the past month and 23.3% over the past six months [6][9]. Valuation - The target price revision reflects a lower price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 0.7x for FY25E revenue estimates, indicating a more conservative valuation approach compared to peers [9][10]. - NIO's profitability is considered worse than that of competitors like Li Auto and Xpeng, which justifies the lower P/S multiple [9][10].