中原期货晨会纪要-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents macro news, price changes of various futures contracts, and morning meeting views on major varieties, offering a comprehensive analysis of the market situation across multiple industries [4][7][13]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry Futures - On June 4, 2025, among chemical futures, most contracts showed price increases. For example, the price of coking coal rose by 19.50 to 738.50, with a growth rate of 2.712%; the price of coke increased by 21.0 to 1,320.00, a growth of 1.617%. However, some contracts declined, such as 20 - number rubber, which dropped by 30.0 to 11,780.00, a decrease of 0.254% [4]. 2. Agricultural Product Futures - In the agricultural product futures market, prices also showed mixed trends. For instance, the price of No. 1 yellow soybean decreased by 12.0 to 4,122.00, a decline of 0.290%, while the price of No. 2 yellow soybean rose by 20.0 to 3,556.00, an increase of 0.566% [4]. 3. Macro News - The US accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, but China firmly opposed this and demanded the US to correct its actions [7]. - US President Trump announced an increase in the import tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from June 4, 2025 [7]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with a Japanese delegation, emphasizing the need to strengthen Sino - Japanese industrial cooperation [7]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held talks with the EU Commissioner, focusing on urgent and important issues in China - EU economic and trade cooperation [8]. - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [8]. - Stablecoins have become a focus among brokerage analysts, with many related phone conferences and research reports [8]. - China's domestic refined oil prices saw the "fourth increase" this year, with gasoline and diesel prices per ton increasing by 65 yuan and 60 yuan respectively [8]. - China officially released a water conservancy standard AI large - model, filling the gap in intelligent tools in the water conservancy standardization field [9]. 4. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties a. Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market has stabilized. With weak demand from traders and the approaching end of oil mill acquisitions, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. - Oils and Fats: There is a lack of new positive drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. - Sugar: With improved weather in Brazil's main sugar - producing areas and increased domestic imports, the market supply pressure is significant. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [13]. - Corn: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price has fallen below the previous support level, and it is recommended to pay attention to the technical support in the 2300 - 2317 range [13]. - Hogs: The price in the northern market is relatively stable, while in the southern market, there is limited room for price movement. The futures contract is oscillating around 13,500 [13][15]. - Eggs: The spot price is stable, but with expected weakening demand after the holiday and quality issues, the price is under pressure. The futures market is also showing a weak trend [15]. b. Energy and Chemicals - Urea: With high supply and slow - growing agricultural demand, the price is under pressure in the short term. However, export expectations and summer fertilizer replenishment may provide some support [15]. - Caustic Soda: With less maintenance of caustic soda plants in June and weakening terminal demand, the market is bearish [15]. - Coking Coal: The online auction of coking coal has seen many unsuccessful bids, and prices have dropped significantly. The market is cautious, and the medium - term downward trend remains unchanged [15]. c. Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Affected by the US tariff increase and a weakening US dollar, the prices of copper and aluminum are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with aluminum under more pressure [17]. - Alumina: Due to reduced supply from maintenance and production cuts, the spot price is relatively strong. The 2509 contract may fluctuate around 3000, but there is still an expectation of medium - term oversupply [17]. - Steel: Steel prices are showing a downward trend, and the market is cautious due to the approaching high - temperature and rainy season. The medium - term downward trend remains unchanged [17]. - Ferroalloys: After the Dragon Boat Festival, ferroalloys continued to decline. With limited production cuts on the supply side, weak demand in the off - season, and expected weakening costs, they are expected to remain bearish [17]. - Lithium Carbonate: With significant supply pressure and weak demand, the price is expected to remain within the 58,000 - 61,000 range. It is recommended to sell short when the price rebounds [19]. d. Option Finance - Stock Index: On June 3, A - share indexes rebounded slightly. The market is expected to show index oscillations in June, with medium - and large - cap stocks potentially outperforming. It is recommended to take a defensive approach in trading [19]. - Options: On June 3, A - share indexes rose slightly. The futures and options markets showed different trends, and investors are advised to take a defensive approach and consider buying wide - straddle options to bet on increased volatility [20].