宝城期货煤焦早报-20250604

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both coking coal and coke futures are expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday. For coking coal, there are multiple negative factors such as loose supply and demand, weak domestic demand, and export concerns. For coke, it is dragged down by the loose supply of upstream coking coal and weak downstream demand [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: falling; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Overall view: running weakly [1]. - Core Logic: Since 2024, coking coal has had a loose supply - demand situation due to sufficient output, high imports, insufficient domestic demand from real estate and infrastructure, and export concerns from Sino - US trade friction. After the "Golden March and Silver April" this year, the iron - making output of steel mills declined in May, and the second round of coke price cuts was implemented on May 28, transferring pressure to coking coal. The mid - long - term fundamental pressure and short - term building material off - season led to the weak oscillation of the futures main contract [5]. Coke - Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: falling; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Overall view: running weakly [1]. - Core Logic: After the second round of coke price cuts in the spot market, the upstream coal price dropped accordingly, and the downstream still has price - cutting expectations. In the futures market, the loose supply of coking coal drags down the cost of coke, and the weak domestic real estate and infrastructure and international export pressure lead to concerns about medium - and long - term demand. In the short - term, the peak of steel mills' iron - making output and the arrival of the construction off - season are not conducive to the rebound of coke futures [6].