烧碱：强现实弱预期，关注成本变动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market shows a pattern of strong current situation but weak expectations, and attention should be paid to cost changes [1]. - In June, caustic soda maintenance and alumina replenishment can still support the market, but the key lies in the sustainability of stockpiling. After replenishment, the market may tend to short the chlor - alkali profit under the negative demand feedback [2]. - The market is in a downward trend of positive arbitrage pattern as caustic soda spot prices are difficult to rise or fall in the short term [2]. - There will be more new maintenance of caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Although the profit is not in deficit, the manufacturers' load is generally at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply [2]. - Considering the decline of coal prices and electricity prices this year, the valuation downside of caustic soda will open, but the change of liquid chlorine prices also needs attention [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2371. The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2719 yuan/ton, and the basis is 348 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda is 880 yuan/ton today, remaining stable compared with the previous period. The market is generally stable during the holiday, with only individual enterprises making minor adjustments. The shipment volume of 32% caustic soda to major downstream customers is large during the holiday, but it decreases as orders are shipped outside the province [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - In June, caustic soda maintenance and alumina replenishment can support the market. If an alumina enterprise in Shandong replenishes its stock, it may lead to a price cut again after late June. After replenishment, the market may short the chlor - alkali profit under negative demand feedback [2]. - There are more new maintenance plans for caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Manufacturers' load is generally high as the profit is not in deficit. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply, although this impact was quite limited in the first quarter due to high caustic soda profits [2]. - Considering the decline of coal and electricity prices this year, self - power - generation enterprises have no motivation to cut production, and grid - power enterprises still have large profit margins. The valuation downside of caustic soda will open, but the change of liquid chlorine prices also needs attention [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral situation [4].