生猪：降重动作显现，反套格局确立

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -1, indicating a bearish view on the market, with a range of [-2, 2] and -2 being the most bearish [2] 2. Core View of the Report - In mid - to late May, the volume - price performance confirmed passive inventory accumulation. Recently, the secondary fattening group rushed to enter the market in advance at the end of the month due to concerns about policy restrictions, accelerating the inventory accumulation. In June, it entered the stage of accelerated weight reduction and inventory clearance. After the festival, enterprises have set clear weight - reduction goals and increased sales. The time to reach the bottom of inventory clearance is uncertain. Both the July and September contracts will trade based on the inventory - clearance logic. The implementation of the policy of banning the sale of second - fattened pigs by many enterprises will accelerate inventory clearance and is conducive to the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter will decrease by 6 - 8% with the same basic inventory. The January contract, a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, will be re - valued, and the market sentiment is expected to strengthen. Attention should be paid to setting stop - profit and stop - loss levels [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price data: The Henan spot price is 14,350 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year), the Sichuan spot price is 14,150 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), the Guangdong spot price is 15,540 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), and the price of the live hog 2507 contract is 13,210 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton compared to the same period) [1] 3.2 Market Logic - Inventory situation: In mid - to late May, passive inventory accumulation occurred. The early entry of the secondary fattening group at the end of the month accelerated the inventory accumulation. In June, it entered the weight - reduction and inventory - clearance stage. Enterprises have set weight - reduction goals and increased sales. The time to reach the bottom of inventory clearance is uncertain [3] - Contract trading logic: The July and September contracts will trade based on the inventory - clearance logic. The implementation of the ban on selling second - fattened pigs will accelerate inventory clearance and is beneficial to the repair of long - term expectations. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter will decrease by 6 - 8%. The January contract will be re - valued, and the market sentiment is expected to strengthen [3] - Trading suggestions: The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to setting stop - profit and stop - loss levels [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data - Volume and open interest: For the live hog 2507 contract, the trading volume is 4,489 lots (down 3,797 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 17,522 lots (down 1,277 lots from the previous day). For the live hog 2509 contract, the trading volume is 26,296 lots (down 4,323 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 77,386 lots (up 1,736 lots from the previous day). For the live hog 2511 contract, the trading volume is 7,562 lots (down 1,217 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 36,789 lots (up 886 lots from the previous day) [3] - Basis and spread data: The basis of the live hog 2507 contract is 1,140 yuan/ton (down 105 yuan/ton year - on - year), the basis of the live hog 2509 contract is 840 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton year - on - year), the basis of the live hog 2511 contract is 1,040 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), the 7 - 9 spread is - 300 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 11 spread is 5 yuan/ton [3][4]