宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2510 is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom due to the game between expectations and reality. In the short - term (within one week), it is expected to oscillate; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is expected to decline; and on the day, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is decline, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of the game between expectations and reality and the steel price oscillating to find the bottom [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar are stable. The weekly output has decreased but remains at a relatively high level this year, with little change on the supply side. The weekly apparent demand has slightly rebounded, while high - frequency transactions remain at a low level. The demand side continues to operate stably but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the expectation of seasonal weakening is likely to ferment, continuing to drag down the rebar fundamentals. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, and the real - world situation is acceptable. Under the game between expectations and reality, the steel price is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].