甲醇：短期低位反弹

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The methanol market shows a short - term low - level rebound. The spot market has mixed price trends, with some regions falling and others rising. The market trading atmosphere has improved due to macro - level benefits and futures rebounds, but downstream demand remains mainly for essential needs at lower prices. Port inventories have different trends, with overall port inventory rising last week [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,225 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,217 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. Trading volume was 737,761 lots, an increase of 36,302 lots; open interest was 841,450 lots, an increase of 17,111 lots. The basis was 50, up 11, and the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 64, up 3 [1]. - Spot Market: The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Inner Mongolia price was 1,840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the northern Shaanxi price was 1,840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Shandong price remained unchanged at 2,120 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2008.89, down 14.42. The Taicang spot price was 2275, up 28, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1862.5, down 32.5. Six out of 20 monitored cities saw price drops ranging from 5 - 32.5 yuan/ton. The northwest methanol market continued to be weak, but market trading improved due to macro - level benefits and futures rebounds. However, downstream enterprises in major sales areas still mainly purchased based on essential needs at lower prices [3]. - Last week, methanol port inventory stopped falling and rebounded, with 24.56 million tons of visible unloading from foreign vessels. Jiangsu's inventory increased slightly due to increased shipments; Zhejiang's inventory increased due to more foreign vessel unloading. The South China port inventory decreased slightly. Guangdong's inventory decreased due to good consumption and increased social warehouse pick - up; Fujian's inventory also decreased due to limited imports and essential consumption [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The methanol trend intensity was 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive view within the [- 2, 2] range [4].