尿素:区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-04 01:50
- Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "Range-bound" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with fundamental pressure in the medium term. The upside is limited due to the gentle release of domestic top - dressing demand, high inventory of mid - stream traders, and the export policy that curbs speculation. The downside is supported by the opening of the export channel. In the long - run, with an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, the pressure on urea remains high, and the price center may gradually decline, but there may be multi - stage price rebounds due to export releases [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - Urea主力: Closing price was 1,761 yuan/ton (down 12 from the previous day), settlement price was 1,774 yuan/ton (down 4), trading volume was 178,534 lots, open interest was 231,078 lots (up 5,951), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6,619 tons (down 235). The turnover was 633.582 million yuan (down 56.772 million) [2] - Basis: Shandong region basis was 109 (up 12), Fengxi - disk was - 31 (up 12), and Dongguang - disk was 69 (up 12) [2] - Month spread: UR09 - UR01 was 65 (down 5) [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Urea factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged at 1,860 yuan/ton, 1,660 yuan/ton, 1,840 yuan/ton, 1,730 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, and 1,880 yuan/ton respectively. Trader prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions also remained unchanged at 1,870 yuan/ton and 1,730 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Supply - side indicators: The operating rate was 90.16% (up 0.57 percentage points), and the daily output was 207,310 tons (up 1,300) [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of May 28, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 980,600 tons, an increase of 63,200 tons (6.89% YoY) from the previous week. The inventory is expected to continue rising this week due to weakened speculative trading by traders [2]