宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 4 日）-20250604

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is to be cautious due to geopolitical and trade policy changes, with prices showing a volatile pattern. The recommendation is to take a wait - and - see approach [1][3] - For nickel, the short - term view is that it is expected to be strong, with the price showing a bottom - up trend and is predicted to run strongly in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Movement: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of Shanghai gold dropped from 790 yuan/gram to 780 yuan/gram, and New York gold fell below 3400 US dollars. The price opened high and went low [3] - Core Logic: Geopolitical risks escalated during the Dragon Boat Festival (including intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict and tense Middle - East situation), and US trade policies became more aggressive (Trump announced to raise steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4). However, the market's sensitivity to US tariff policies may have decreased, and there is a large long - short divergence in the market. Technically, the price is approaching the high of the medium - term downward track, with strong pressure and high willingness for long - position holders to close their positions [3] - Viewpoints: Short - term view is volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the daily view is volatile and weak. The recommended view is to wait and see [1][3] Nickel - Price Movement: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the nickel price opened high and went low during the day and strengthened at night, with the main contract price oscillating between 121,000 - 122,000 yuan [5] - Core Logic: Before the festival, the nickel price dropped significantly due to rumors of an increase in Indonesian nickel ore quotas, but the rumors did not impact the Indonesian nickel ore price. Technically, the short - term price bottomed out and rebounded, and the technical support at the 120,000 - yuan mark is still effective. When non - ferrous metals generally fell yesterday, nickel was relatively strong, and it strengthened along with other non - ferrous metals at night [5] - Viewpoints: Short - term view is upward, medium - term view is volatile, and the daily view is upward. The recommended view is to be bullish in the short term [1][5]