国信证券晨会纪要-20250604

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic data for May 2025 is expected to show stable growth momentum, with CPI forecasted at -0.4% and PPI at -3.2% [11] - The fixed income market remains active, with super long bonds experiencing a slight increase in trading volume despite trade war uncertainties [9][10] - The A-share market shows a slight decline in core broad-based valuations, with large-cap stocks experiencing a drop while small-cap stocks see some expansion [12][13] Group 2: Industry and Company Insights - The AI infrastructure sector is witnessing significant capital expenditure growth, with major companies like Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion over three years [18] - The home appliance sector is performing well ahead of the 618 shopping festival, with air conditioner production expected to increase by 29% year-on-year in June [32][34] - The education sector is experiencing a notable divergence in stock performance, with companies like China Oriental Education seeing a 139% increase, driven by strong demand in high school education [28][29] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investment focus should be on companies within the AI infrastructure supply chain, particularly in core segments like gas turbines and cooling systems [20][22] - In the home appliance sector, recommended stocks include Gree Electric, Midea Group, and Haier Smart Home, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming sales surge [35] - The education sector's recovery is expected to continue, with a focus on companies that have adapted well to regulatory changes and market demands [31]