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2025 信用月报之六:6月信用,中高评级4Y骑乘-20250604
HUAXI Securities·2025-06-04 01:52

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In May, the interest rate was in a volatile market, and the decline of the capital center opened up the carry trade space. Institutions chased credit products with relatively high coupon yields, and funds became the main buyers, driving the credit spreads to narrow across the board. The 3 - 5 - year medium - and low - grade bonds performed better. In June, the supply - demand pattern of credit bonds is unfavorable, and the cost - performance of credit bonds has declined, which may lead to the widening of credit spreads. It is not recommended to chase low - grade medium - and long - term bonds, but there is no need to rush to take profits on medium - and long - term credit bonds. Instead, consider taking profits in mid - to late July. In June, when the coupon and credit spreads are both at low levels, it is appropriate to explore the riding opportunities of medium - and high - grade varieties, especially the 4 - year medium - and high - grade bonds. [1][2][24] - For bank capital bonds, the cost - performance of long - term large - bank capital bonds for insurance institutions is still low, and the allocation demand is difficult to recover in the short term. It may depend more on the start of the trading market. In the process of waiting, coupon assets can still be pursued, and there is still cost - performance in sinking the credit of medium - and short - term bonds. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. June Credit: Sinking within 3 Years and Riding Medium - and High - Grade Bonds 1.1. It is not advisable to chase high for low - grade medium - and long - term bonds. Explore the riding opportunities of medium - and high - grade 4 - year bonds - In May, the bond market was defensive, and the long - end interest rate fluctuated. The decline of the capital center opened up the carry trade space, and funds became the main buyers of credit bonds, driving the credit spreads to narrow across the board. The 3 - 5 - year medium - and low - grade bonds in urban investment bonds performed better, with yields down 12 - 16bp and credit spreads narrowing 12 - 18bp. [8][9] - In June, the demand for credit bonds is facing a decline in the scale of wealth management products at the end of the quarter, while the supply side will see an increase in issuance and net financing month - on - month. The unfavorable supply - demand pattern and the decline in the cost - performance of credit bonds may lead to the widening of credit spreads. [13][16] - In May, the market for low - grade 3 - 5 - year bonds was extreme. There is no need to rush to take profits on medium - and long - term credit bonds in June, but it is not recommended to chase low - grade medium - and long - term bonds. [22][24] - In June, when the coupon and credit spreads are at low levels, it is appropriate to explore the riding opportunities of medium - and high - grade varieties. The current convex point is at the 4 - year term, and the 4 - year medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds are worth deploying. It is also possible to consider replacing 5 - year bonds with similar 4 - year bonds to improve the risk - return ratio of the portfolio. In addition, 3 - year AA(2) and AA urban investment bonds have both coupon income and liquidity and can be used as defensive investment products. [29][30][33] 1.2. Bank capital bonds are waiting for the start of the trading market - In May, institutions valued the coupon cost - performance when allocating bank capital bonds. Medium - and small - bank capital bonds and AA - perpetual bonds with coupon advantages performed better, while the performance of 1 - year large - bank capital bonds and 4 - 5 - year AAA - bank capital bonds was poor. [36] - The cost - performance of long - term large - bank capital bonds for insurance institutions is still low, and the allocation demand is difficult to recover in the short term. The performance of long - term large - bank capital bonds may depend more on the start of the interest - rate bond trading market. In the process of waiting, coupon assets can still be pursued, and there is cost - performance in sinking the credit of medium - and short - term bonds. [38][45] 2. Urban Investment Bonds: The Issuance Interest Rates Have Declined across the Board, and the Buying Interest Remains High - In May, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds continued to decline year - on - year, and the net financing was negative, but the overall issuance sentiment was good. The proportion of 3 - 5 - year issuance continued to rise slightly, and the issuance interest rates of all terms declined, with relatively large declines in the medium - and short - term. [48][49] - The secondary - market buying interest in urban investment bonds was high in May, but the trading sentiment declined in the last week. The trading volume was gradually extended in terms of duration, and the low - grade varieties had a high proportion of trading volume. [58] - The yields of public urban investment bonds in each province declined in May, with the 2 - 3 - year medium - and low - grade bonds performing better. [60] 3. Industrial Bonds: Both Issuance and Net Financing Increased Year - on - Year, and the Yields Declined across the Board - In May, the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The industries with large net financing scales include comprehensive, building decoration, chemical, and transportation industries. The proportion of issuance within 1 year increased significantly, and the issuance interest rates within 3 years declined significantly, while the 3 - 5 - year issuance interest rates increased slightly. [62][64] - The yields of industrial bonds declined across the board in May. Low - grade bonds with coupon advantages and 7 - year medium - and high - grade bonds performed better. The yields of public bonds in each industry declined by 7 - 21bp, with 1 - year AA, 1 - 3 - year AA + and AA performing better. [65][69] 4. Bank Capital Bonds: Low - Grade Bonds Performed Better, and the Trading Sentiment Was Weak - In May 2025, the issuance scale of bank capital bonds increased year - on - year, but due to the large amount of maturity redemptions, the net financing scale decreased year - on - year. [72] - The yields of bank capital bonds generally declined in May, and most of the credit spreads narrowed. Low - grade perpetual bonds performed better, while large - bank capital bonds performed weakly. [76]