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瑞银:阿里巴巴 -尽管近期芯片供应利润率波动,增长势头仍在
BABABABA(US:BABA)2025-06-04 01:50

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Alibaba Group with a price target of US$178.00, while the current price is US$117.18 [4][26]. Core Insights - The growth outlook for Alibaba's cloud services remains positive, with management confident in accelerating topline growth driven by increased inferencing demand and broad-based adoption across various verticals [2]. - The local services segment is focusing on long-term growth through a Rmb10bn quick commerce initiative, capitalizing on the trend towards immediate delivery services [3]. - Taobao Tmall is expected to maintain its GMV share despite quarterly fluctuations, with take rate drivers remaining intact due to new service fees and promotional tools [8][9]. Summary by Sections Cloud Services - Management emphasizes AI implementation and user engagement over immediate profit margins, expecting cloud margins to remain stable at high single-digit percentages [2]. - AliCloud's strategy includes a multi-chip approach to mitigate chip supply constraints, with a commitment to a Rmb380bn investment in AI over three years [2]. Local Services - The quick commerce initiative aims to enhance ROI by addressing consumer preferences for immediate delivery, which is less price-sensitive [3]. - Management has noted a peak of 40 million daily orders combining food and non-food quick commerce, indicating strong user engagement [3]. Taobao Tmall - The platform is in an investment phase, anticipating fluctuations in EBITA but maintaining take rate drivers through new fees and promotional tools [8]. - The introduction of a software service fee and the advantages of large language models are expected to enhance user recommendations and boost GMV conversion [8]. Valuation - Alibaba is trading at an undemanding 12x FY26E P/E, positioning it as the cheapest AI stock globally, with significant long-term growth opportunities in AI [9]. - Forecast returns indicate a potential price appreciation of 51.9% and a dividend yield of 1.6%, leading to an overall forecast stock return of 53.5% [10].