摩根大通：全球大宗商品一周动态

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the commodities sector, but it discusses various market dynamics and price expectations for oil and other commodities. Core Insights - Global oil inventories are increasing, yet prices remain stable, with market opinions divided on whether current oil prices are too low or too high. Prices are expected to remain within current ranges before easing into the high $50s by year-end [3][6] - A global oil surplus has widened to 2.2 million barrels per day (mbd), likely necessitating a price adjustment to prompt a supply-side response and restore balance [3][6] - Despite supply pressures, three strong market forces are providing a firm price floor in the $55-60 Brent ($50-55 WTI) range [3][6] - Most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, are producing at or near maximum capacity following a price hike in July [3][6] - The U.S. administration may begin repurchasing oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as early as August [3][6] - U.S. shale wellhead breakeven prices are estimated at around $47 WTI, assuming zero return [3][6] Oil Demand & Inventory Tracker - Global oil demand improved from the previous week, driven by a rebound in U.S. oil consumption, tracking approximately 400 thousand barrels per day (kbd) monthly expansion, yet remains 250 kbd below expectations [10] - Total liquid inventories globally edged up slightly, with crude oil stocks falling by 1 million barrels while oil product inventories increased by 2 million barrels [10] - Month-to-date, global liquid inventories have risen by 63 million barrels, with crude oil stocks up by 67 million barrels [10] Commodity Market Positioning - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest increased by 2.5% week-over-week (WOW) to $1.46 trillion, driven by inflows and rising prices across precious metals and crude oil [9] - Contract-based inflows reached $20 billion WOW, marking the highest aggregate inflows for 2025 at $90 billion year-to-date, surpassing 10-year average levels [9] Price Forecasts - WTI Crude prices are forecasted to average $57 per barrel in Q4 2025, while Brent Crude is expected to average $61 per barrel in the same period [12] - Platinum prices are projected to rise to an average of $1,200 per ounce in Q4 2025 and reach $1,300 per ounce by Q2 2026 [11]