摩根士丹利：研究关键预测

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US stocks, Treasuries, and US Investment Grade Corporate Credit, emphasizing a focus on quality assets [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a global growth slowdown, forecasting a decline from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with the US experiencing a drop in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026 [1][7]. - The impact of tariffs is highlighted as a structural shock to the global trading order, affecting demand and supply across various economies, particularly in the US and China [1][7]. - Despite the anticipated slowdown, the report suggests that risk assets may perform well as markets adjust to less severe growth expectations [2][3]. Economic Forecasts - Global GDP growth is projected at 2.5% for 2025, with the US at 1.0%, Euro Area at 0.8%, Japan at 0.3%, and Emerging Markets (EM) at 3.8% [8]. - Inflation rates are expected to be 2.1% globally and 3.0% in the US for 2025, with a gradual decline in subsequent years [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report favors quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [5]. - For Japan, the focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries, while in Europe, the report recommends a shift towards resilient sectors such as defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - Emerging Markets are recommended to focus on financials and profitability leaders, with a preference for domestic-focused businesses over exporters [5]. Market Valuations - The report provides specific price targets and P/E ratios for major indices, including S&P 500 at 6,500 with a P/E of 21.5x, MSCI Europe at 2,250 with a P/E of 15.2x, and MSCI EM at 1,200 with a P/E of 12.5x [6].