高盛：衡量中国的财政乘数与财政冲击

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Fiscal easing has been the primary driver of China's cyclical policy in recent years due to weak private demand and muted monetary policy transmission [3][4] - The estimated short-term fiscal multiplier for China ranges from 0.2 to 1.9, with a mean of 0.7 and a median of 0.6 for a one-year horizon [13][16] - The report estimates China's fiscal multiplier to be around 0.5, indicating that a 1 percentage point widening in the augmented fiscal deficit (AFD) would boost real GDP by 0.5 percentage points after four quarters [6][24] - The AFD is projected to widen to 13.0% of GDP in 2025 and 13.5% in 2026, which is expected to increase real GDP growth by 1.1 percentage points in 2025 and 0.6 percentage points in 2026, compared to a 0.5 percentage point drag in 2024 [6][41] Summary by Sections Fiscal Multiplier Estimates - Recent literature suggests a wide range for China's fiscal multiplier, with discrepancies attributed to different sample periods and estimation techniques [13][14] - The report's analysis indicates a cumulative fiscal multiplier of approximately 0.2-0.3 in the first two quarters after a fiscal shock, rising to around 0.5 in the subsequent quarters [28][39] Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD) - The AFD has averaged over 11% of GDP in the past three years, while nominal GDP growth has been below 5% [17] - The report highlights a shift towards increasing the official government debt since the onset of COVID-19, enhancing the proportion of on-budget fiscal deficit in the AFD [17][21] Economic Growth Impact - The report anticipates that fiscal policy will significantly support GDP growth in the coming quarters, with a peak incremental fiscal boost expected in Q4 2025 [41][42] - The estimated growth impact of AFD widening is projected to be 1.1 percentage points in 2025 and 0.6 percentage points in 2026, with a quarterly incremental effect diminishing after the fourth quarter [41][44]