高盛：中国5 月财新制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）显著下降

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the manufacturing sector, as reflected by the Caixin manufacturing PMI falling to 48.3 in May, below the neutral level of 50, suggesting contraction in the industry [1][3]. Core Insights - The Caixin manufacturing PMI decreased significantly from 50.4 in April to 48.3 in May, marking the lowest level since September 2022 and missing market expectations [2][3]. - Major sub-indexes showed declines, with the output sub-index dropping to 47.5 from 51.6, the new order sub-index falling to 47.4 from 50.5, and the employment sub-index decreasing to 48.4 from 49.0 [3][4]. - The divergence between the Caixin and NBS manufacturing PMIs may be attributed to survey timing differences, as the Caixin PMI is typically conducted earlier in the month [1][9]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing PMI - The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in May, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, contrary to market expectations of an increase [2][3]. - The output sub-index and new order sub-index experienced the most significant declines, reflecting deteriorating demand conditions [3][4]. Trade-Related Sub-Indexes - The new export orders sub-index decreased to 46.2 in May, the lowest since July 2023, indicating weakened international demand [4]. - Inventory levels showed an increase, with raw materials inventory rising to 50.1 and finished goods inventory increasing to 50.3, suggesting a buildup of stock [4]. Price Indicators - Disinflationary pressures were noted, with the input price index falling to 48.8 and the output price index declining to 48.6, indicating reduced pricing power for manufacturers [4].