能源化工日报-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to trade sideways, with potential support from stronger-than-expected domestic stimulus policies and further pressure from worsening trade frictions and economic outlook [2] - Caustic soda is likely to see tight spot supply in June but may peak, and is expected to trend weakly with oscillations in the medium term [3] - Natural rubber prices have limited upside due to insufficient inventory drawdown and lack of positive factors [5] - Urea's supply-demand imbalance remains, with a possible rebound due to rising coal prices, and should be traded within a range [6] - Methanol may rebound with coal price increases, with its 09 contract expected to trade between 2150 - 2300 [8] - Plastic is expected to trade widely sideways in the short term, entering the traditional off-season in June [9] Summary by Product PVC - On June 3, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4745 yuan/ton (-19), with a weak cost, demand, high production, and inventory situation. The long - term demand is dragged by the real estate sector, and exports are restricted. The supply pressure is high in Q3. The current inventory drawdown is okay, and the market is macro - driven. The price is expected to be sideways [2] Caustic Soda - On June 3, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2371 yuan/ton (-85). The current supply has good profits and high operation rates, with some new installations expected. There are concentrated maintenance in June, leading to a short - term output decline. The demand has mixed signals, with potential alumina复产 but weak non - aluminum demand. The spot may be tight in June but is likely to peak, and trend weakly in the medium term [3] Natural Rubber - On June 3, the three major rubber futures traded sideways. The spot price had a limited rebound due to insufficient inventory drawdown and a lack of positive factors. As of June 1, 2025, Qingdao's total inventory decreased by 0.80%. Tire enterprise capacity utilization decreased. Raw material prices and product prices were provided [5] Urea - The urea 09 contract fell 0.96% to close at 1761 yuan/ton. The supply remains high, with an 88.87% operating rate. Agricultural demand is yet to be fully released, and industrial demand has limited support. The inventory is increasing, and it may rebound with coal prices, trading within 1730 - 1850 [6] Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 0.72% to close at 2225 yuan/ton. The supply is relatively abundant, and the cost - profit situation shows a slowdown in coal price decline. The methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate increased, but traditional demand is weak. The inventory is rising, and it may rebound with coal prices, trading within 2150 - 2300 [8] Plastic - On June 3, the plastic main contract fell 0.16% to 6963 yuan/ton. The supply pressure remains despite high maintenance, the demand enters the off - season, and the inventory is neutral. It is expected to trade widely sideways between 6950 - 7350 in the short term [9]