交银国际每日晨报-20250604

Group 1: Financial Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the strengthening support for high dividend strategies, suggesting investors focus on high dividend assets due to increased economic and market volatility caused by the Trump administration's tariff policies [1][2] - Earnings expectations for 2025 indicate that the securities industry is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year, while the banking sector is projected to remain stable, and the insurance industry may see a slight decline due to a high base effect [1][2] - The valuation levels in the securities sector are considered low, indicating potential for valuation recovery supported by good earnings growth, while the insurance sector offers both defensive and elastic characteristics [1][2] Group 2: Real Estate Industry Outlook - The Chinese mainland real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, with new residential property sales reaching 27,035 billion RMB in the first four months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of only 3.2% [3] - The report forecasts total new home sales for 2025 to be between 8 trillion and 8.5 trillion RMB, with potential policy support for existing home sales and land use adjustments [3] - Investment recommendations prioritize state-owned developers with low valuations, followed by private sector leaders with land reserves in first and second-tier cities [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to stabilize due to population recovery and a significant drop in HIBOR, with residential prices projected to grow by 3%, 5%, and 5% from 2025 to 2027 [6] - The retail sector faces pressure due to changing consumer habits, but the trend of consumption from mainland China is expected to alleviate rental pressures [6] - Investment preferences in the Hong Kong real estate sector rank retail REITs highest, followed by low-debt residential developers, and office property owners last [6] Group 4: Online Music Industry - The report highlights that NetEase Cloud Music's gross margin improved unexpectedly, leading to an upward revision of adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 9% respectively [7][8] - Online music revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year in 2025, driven by a 16% increase in subscription revenue, supported by membership expansion [8][9] - Tencent Music is advancing diversified partnerships with copyright holders, which is anticipated to enhance profit margins and lead to an upward adjustment in valuations [9][10]