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宝城期货资讯早班车-20250604
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-06-04 01:59
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The OECD has downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 is expected to drop from 2.2% to 1.6%, and 1.5% in 2026. The global growth forecast for 2025 is reduced to 2.9%, and inflation is expected to rise to 3.2%, with the US possibly approaching 4%. The Fed may keep interest rates unchanged this year, and trade barriers and policy risks will significantly impact the growth outlook [3][16]. - Multiple research institutions have provided outlooks for the bond market. They generally believe that the bond market will continue to show a volatile trend in the second half of the year, with various influencing factors and difficult rhythm judgments. They also suggest different investment strategies, such as band - trading, duration adjustment, and variety selection [24][25]. - The A - share and Hong Kong stock markets have shown certain trends. The A - share market has a structural market, and institutions are optimistic about its structural opportunities. The Hong Kong stock market has seen some IPO activities, and the market has shown certain trading volume and sector performance [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew by 5.40% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 49.50%, up from the previous month but the same as the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI business activity index was 50.30%, down from the previous month and the same period last year. The Caixin manufacturing PMI in May was 48.30%, down significantly from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - In April 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.00%, 1.50%, and 8.00% respectively. The new RMB loans of financial institutions in April were 2800 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous month and the same period last year. The CPI in April was - 0.10% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year. The PPI was - 2.70% year - on - year, down from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The US has accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, but China firmly opposes this and has made solemn representations. The US has taken a series of extreme measures that damage China's legitimate rights and interests [2][13]. - On June 3, 2025, 48 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 14 had negative basis. Among them, Shanghai nickel, Zhengzhou cotton, and cotton yarn had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber, strong wheat, and common wheat had the smallest basis [2]. - Due to the international oil price fluctuations, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were raised on June 3, 24:00. Gasoline and diesel were increased by 65 yuan and 60 yuan per ton respectively, and the average price of 92 - octane gasoline, 95 - octane gasoline, and 0 - diesel increased by 0.05 yuan per liter [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - The president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China said that China has not blocked rare - earth exports, but the export approval speed is slower than expected. In mid - May, China suspended export control bans on 28 US entities, which may include some rare - earths [4]. - On June 2, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead inventories in the London Metal Exchange decreased, while nickel inventory increased. Tin, aluminum alloy, and cobalt inventories remained stable [5]. - Peru expects its copper production to reach 2.8 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coking, Steel, and Minerals - Since April, China's coal production has continued to increase, imports have decreased, consumption has been weak, and the market has been in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with prices falling and industry profits declining [7]. - US President Trump announced that the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives will be raised from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, 2025, except for those from the UK, which will remain at 25% [7][13]. - The UK is trying to persuade the US to cancel the tariffs on its steel exports according to the agreement reached last month [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC's crude oil production in May increased by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.754 million barrels per day [8]. - Kazakhstan supplied 230,000 tons of crude oil to Germany through the Friendship Pipeline in May [8]. - Russia's Gazprom gave up the idea of entering the European natural gas market through Turkey [9]. - In the four - week period ending on June 1, Russia's crude oil export volume decreased, and its export revenue also declined [9]. - Moody's expects the oil price to remain at around $65 per barrel, about $10 lower than the previous forecast, which will limit the income of African exporters [9]. - On June 3, the API crude oil inventory in the US last week decreased by 3.28 million barrels [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Sunflower oil, soybean oil, and palm oil imports also increased [10]. - Ukraine's agricultural minister said that the country's grain harvest in 2025 may decrease by 10% to about 51 million tons [10]. - In Malaysia, palm oil production from May 1 - 31 increased by 3.53%, with an increase in yield per unit area and oil extraction rate [10]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 3, the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 830 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 375.5 billion yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months [13]. - In May, the central bank carried out 14.01 billion yuan of standing lending facility operations for financial institutions, with a balance of 14 billion yuan at the end of May. The interest rates of overnight, 7 - day, and 1 - month standing lending facilities decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared with the end of the previous month [14]. - In May, policy - based banks net repaid 270 billion yuan of pledged supplementary loans, and the balance at the end of May was 1.7939 trillion yuan [14]. - The Standard Chartered Renminbi Global Index in April 2025 rose for the fifth consecutive month to 5167, an 8.3% increase since the beginning of the year [14]. - In May, the bond - type funds dominated the public fund issuance market, while the ETF issuance scale hit a five - month low. The issuance of hybrid funds faced difficulties, reflecting the shrinking market risk appetite [15]. - Since the beginning of this year, the bond issuance and financing scale of listed companies has exceeded 2.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.79%. The bond issuance of listed companies has been warming up since April [15]. - As of June 3, the number and scale of secondary - tier perpetual bonds issued by commercial banks this year have decreased year - on - year, but the issuance in the second quarter has increased significantly compared with the first quarter [16]. - Fujian Province's provincial budget adjustment plan for 2025 involves 72.2 billion yuan of new government debt quotas [16]. - Japan's 10 - year government bond auction had strong demand, and the yield of 10 - year government bonds fell [17]. - Japan's central bank governor said that the bank may further slow down the pace of government bond purchases in the next fiscal year and may raise interest rates if the economic outlook is achieved [18]. - Multiple bond - related events occurred, including the approval of CITIC Securities to issue up to 15 billion yuan of science and technology innovation corporate bonds, and the resumption of trading of some corporate bonds [18]. - Multiple overseas credit rating adjustments were made, including Fitch's upgrade of Shandong Hi - Speed Group and Shandong Hi - Speed Holding Group's credit ratings [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - On the first trading day of June, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rising slightly, and most treasury bond futures closing down. The inter - bank market liquidity was balanced and loose, and the weighted average interest rates of major repurchase transactions decreased [19]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.29% to 430.56 points, and the trading volume was 55.238 billion yuan. The Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.33% to 204.87 points [19]. - The short - term Shibor rates mostly declined, and the inter - bank, silver - silver inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds all fell [19][20][21]. - The winning bid yields of Agricultural Development Bank's 2 - year and 7 - year financial bonds were announced, along with the full - market multiples and marginal multiples [21]. - European bond yields showed mixed trends, and US bond yields rose across the board [21][22]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1895 on June 3, up 58 points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1869, down 21 points from the previous trading day [23]. - In the New York market, the US dollar index rose 0.60% to 99.28, and most non - US currencies fell [23]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Securities believes that in the second half of 2025, the bond market will continue to be volatile, with the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate expected to fluctuate between 1.5% - 1.8%. It recommends band - trading strategies [24][25]. - CICC Fixed Income believes that the weak performance of interest - rate bonds and strong performance of credit bonds are related to two "vicious circles." It expects the central bank to increase monetary policy easing in the second and third quarters, and suggests investors actively allocate Chinese bonds [25]. - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that there are opportunities in the market, and interest rates are expected to decline after mid - June. The 10 - year treasury bond may reach 1.4% - 1.5% this year [25]. - Hongze Fixed Income Ye Qing points out that bank wealth management's equity allocation is seriously under - allocated. If the allocation ratio increases to 5 - 10%, it can bring trillions of incremental funds [26]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On June 4, 96 bonds will be listed, 93 bonds will be issued, 43 bonds will be paid, and 59 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [27]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The sample adjustment plans for Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. were announced, with multiple stocks being adjusted in and out, and the adjustment will take effect on June 16 [28]. - Regulatory authorities are increasing their attention to "small essays" in the capital market, and some local securities regulatory bureaus have taken the lead in collecting clues and suggestions [28]. - On June 3, the three major A - share indexes opened lower and closed higher, with the large - finance sector leading the rise. The turnover was 1.16 trillion yuan, the same as the previous day [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.53%, and the market turnover was 203.7 billion Hong Kong dollars. South - bound funds had a net purchase of 3.905 billion Hong Kong dollars [29]. - As of now, 28 companies have completed IPOs in the Hong Kong stock market in 2025, raising a total of 77.68 billion Hong Kong dollars. Deloitte predicts that about 80 new stocks will be listed in Hong Kong this year, raising 130 - 150 billion Hong Kong dollars [29][30]. - In May, private equity institutions actively investigated semiconductor, medical device, and general equipment industries in the A - share market. Many private equity firms are optimistic about the A - share's structural opportunities [30]. - Stable - coin is a focus of attention among securities analysts, with many related research reports and phone conferences [30]. - Insurance funds and other long - term funds are increasing their equity investment and market entry. The stock market value held by the life insurance industry has increased, and some insurance companies have confirmed their buying operations [30]. - NIO's Q1 2025 revenue was 12.035 billion yuan, with a net loss of 6.279 billion yuan after adjustment. The company delivered 42,094 new cars in Q1, and expects to deliver 72,000 - 75,000 cars in Q2, with an expected revenue of 19.51 - 20.07 billion yuan [31].