Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The steel market is facing challenges with demand seasonally weakening, production expected to decline, and inventory trends shifting. The cost of steel is also decreasing due to falling raw material prices. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [1]. - The iron ore market is relatively stable, with production maintained by coal price concessions and influenced more by macro - news. It is expected to oscillate within a certain range [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are in a weak state, with deepening supply - demand contradictions and expected short - term weak adjustments or downward trends [3][4]. Section Summaries 1. Steel (Rebar) - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was weak. The Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 10 - contract basis was 162 (+13). - The latest production and sales data showed stable apparent demand, but demand is likely to weaken seasonally. Long - process steel mills have good profits, while short - process ones have poor profits. Production is expected to decline steadily, and inventory removal will slow or slightly increase. - With falling raw material prices, the cost center of steel has shifted down. The current futures price is near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. - In the short term, with a low - valuation background, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. 2. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures oscillated. The spot price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 727 yuan/wet ton (-8), and the Platts 62% index was 96.30 dollars/ton (-0.50). - The total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,830.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.5. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,620.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 292.40. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69. - The iron ore market is relatively strong due to coal price concessions. It is more affected by macro - news, and the high - output effect of overseas mainstream mines at the end of the fiscal year will be seen in early July. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline. - Technically, the long and short forces on the futures are not obvious. It is expected to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. 3. Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic main - producing area coal mines have stable production, but some mines have limited production or short - term shutdowns due to inventory pressure. The import volume from Mongolia is restricted by weak demand, and the port quotation is under pressure. - Demand: Coking and steel enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy. Coking enterprises have low purchasing willingness due to shrinking profits, and the decline in steel mill hot - metal production suppresses raw material consumption. - Inventory: Coal mines face significant inventory pressure, and some mines are at full capacity. Coking plant raw - coal inventory has further decreased, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. - Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is deepening, and it may continue to adjust weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of steel terminal demand, import coal price fluctuations, and domestic coal mine inventory removal and production reduction [3]. 4. Coke - Supply: Main - producing area coking enterprises maintain stable production, with only a few adjusting production due to environmental inspections and shipment pressure. - Demand: Steel mills maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, with weak purchasing enthusiasm. The decline in hot - metal production weakens the rigid demand for coke, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is deepening. - Inventory: Coking enterprise on - site inventory is accumulating rapidly, and some areas are offering discounts. Steel mill coke available days are decreasing, and they have a clear tendency to control volume and reduce prices. - Cost: Raw - coal prices are also falling, but the decline in coke is faster, causing some cost - sensitive coking enterprises to face losses. - Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the coke market is intensifying, and it may continue to decline weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal steel consumption, steel mill profit repair, and the impact of macro - policies on the industry chain [4]. 5. Industry News - Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce will organize the 2025 new - energy vehicle rural promotion campaign, with special and characteristic activities in selected counties and surrounding towns [5]. - US President Trump raised the import tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50% (except for imports from the UK, which remain at 25%), effective from June 4, 2025, 00:01 EST [5]. - On June 3, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australian Trade Minister Farrell in Paris, discussing issues such as deepening China - Australia economic and trade relations and strengthening multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation [5]. - According to the China National Coal Association, in mid - May, the output of key coal enterprises was 60.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative output in the first and mid - May was 119 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [5]. - In May 2025, 12 steel projects started or were put into production, including projects of Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Zhanjiang Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., and Zhongtian Huai'an Company [5].
长江期货黑色产业日报-20250604
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-06-04 01:58