宝城期货甲醇早报：煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强-20250604

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and slightly strong [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillatory and slightly strong trend [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - With the digestion of macro - positive factors, the methanol futures price has shifted to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Multiple domestic coal - to - methanol plants have restarted, increasing supply pressure and hitting a new weekly production high. Downstream demand improvement is limited, and the futures profit of methanol - to - olefins has declined, which is not conducive to further reduction of port inventories. With the expected increase in external imports, the pressure of social inventory accumulation will increase in the future [5]. - Thanks to the rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract rebounded slightly on the night of Wednesday, with the futures price rising 1.80% to 2,257 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and slightly strong trend on Wednesday [5].