工业硅、多晶硅日评：市场信心较差工业硅价格持续下探，多晶硅低位整理-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory pressure, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are unlikely to have an upward trend in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) decreased by 1.21% to 8,150 yuan/ton, and 421 (East China) decreased by 1.12% to 8,850 yuan/ton. The futures main - contract closing price dropped by 1.26% to 7,070 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the wet season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, with overall low willingness to resume production. The overall supply has declined [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the resumption may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The domestic monomer enterprises' production is mixed, and the demand for industrial silicon is expected to further decline. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low prices is insufficient [1]. - Investment Strategy: Due to the supply - demand imbalance and high inventory, it is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling on price rebounds. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: The prices of N - type dense material, polysilicon re - feeding material, polysilicon dense material, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained unchanged. The futures main - contract closing price dropped by 3.48% to 34,360 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply: Silicon material enterprises continue to cut production, and some may have new capacity put into operation. The output is expected to remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and continuous price drops of silicon wafers, cells, and components. Market demand has slowed down, and component delivery prices are close to new lows [1]. - Investment Strategy: Given the weak fundamentals and difficult - to - solve over - capacity problem, it is recommended to short - sell on price rebounds and continuously monitor supply - side changes [1]. Other Information - From May 23 to May 29, the weekly output of sample silicon factories in Xinjiang was 27,120 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 59%, a 7 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The output of large factories in Xinjiang is expected to continue to increase, and the operating rate may further rise [1]. - Junda Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation agreement with a Turkish company to build a 2GW high - efficiency photovoltaic cell production base in Turkey [1].