PX&PTA&PR早评-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 3, geopolitical risks in the international crude oil market increased, and the wildfires in Canada provided some support for oil prices, but the OPEC+ production increase plan suppressed oil prices. Multiple PX units restarted or increased their loads recently, increasing supply and reducing the overall destocking volume of PX. With strong polyester production cut sentiment, the market sentiment was affected. However, the spot market remained short of goods, so in the short term, the bottom of PX prices and PXN would still be supported. In the medium - term, PX would continue to destock in the next few months [2]. - PTA prices declined. Although geopolitical issues pushed up crude oil prices, the atmosphere of domestic bulk chemicals was weak. The destocking speed of PTA slowed down, and the spot basis weakened. Polyester new capacity ran smoothly with high operating rates, having a good rigid demand for PTA. In the short term, PTA spot prices would mainly follow the cost side. The operating load of polyester filament further declined, and the overall market sales were average, with most factories still having inventory pressure. During the tariff suspension period, the foreign trade market showed more quotations and samples, and some traders said there were large potential orders [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets declined. Polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures weakened. The supply side of bottle - chips mostly kept their quotes stable, and the downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was low, resulting in a stalemate in market transactions. Recently, some units in East China were under maintenance, the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased, but the overall market supply was still abundant [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate. (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream Products: On June 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $63.41 per barrel, up 4.31% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $65.63 per barrel, up 2.71%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $561.63 per ton, up 0.56%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $699.00 per ton, down 1.34%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $824.00 per ton, down 2.06% [1]. - PTA Products: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,628 yuan per ton, down 1.53%; the settlement price was 4,708 yuan per ton, down 0.34%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,840 yuan per ton, down 2.02%; the settlement price was 4,888 yuan per ton, down 1.05%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,915 yuan per ton, down 0.55%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,905 yuan per ton, down 0.71%, and the CCFEI price index of external PTA was $634.00 per ton on June 2, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 180 yuan per ton, a decrease of 36 yuan, and the basis was 277 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan [1]. - PX Products: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,524 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the settlement price was 6,636 yuan per ton, down 0.18%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 7,000 yuan per ton, up 6.74%; the settlement price was 6,822 yuan per ton, up 0.56%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,857 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR Taiwan, China) was $824.00 per ton, down 2.25%, and the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB South Korea) was $799.00 per ton, down 2.32%. The PXN spread was $262.38 per ton, down 7.23%, the PX - MX spread was $125.00 per ton, down 5.89%, and the basis was 333 yuan per ton, an increase of 94 yuan [1]. - PR Products: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,912 yuan per ton, down 1.17%; the settlement price was 5,984 yuan per ton, down 0.30%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,950 yuan per ton, down 0.90%; the settlement price was 5,974 yuan per ton, down 0.50%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.42%, and in the South China market was 6,030 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The basis in the East China market was 48 yuan per ton, an increase of 45 yuan, and in the South China market was 118 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1]. - Downstream Products: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,925 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,200 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,505 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,920 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.42% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 81.45% on June 3, up 2.27 percentage points from the previous value. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.84%, up 3.01 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories was 89.71%, down 0.23 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 83.82%, down 0.37 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.80%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 39.00% on June 3, up 5 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 72.00%, up 13 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 101.00%, up 53 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA unit in the northwest planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategies - PTA opened high and closed low. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,623 yuan per ton, down 2.03%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.33 million lots. PX was weakly affected by costs. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,524 yuan per ton, down 1.87%, with an intraday trading volume of 25,040 lots. PR followed the cost trend. The 2507 contract closed at 5,912 yuan per ton, down 1.50%, with an intraday trading volume of 32,800 lots. It was expected that PX, PTA, and PR would fluctuate (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]