化工日报：青岛港口库存小幅下降-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated cautiously bearish, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of 20 - rubber is expected to decline due to narrowing basis and over - valuation, and the natural rubber price may face pressure with supply recovery. The demand for all - steel tires has improved, and attention should be paid to the recovery of future demand. The production of butadiene rubber is in continuous loss, but the supply may be supported in June, and the downward space of its price is limited if the butadiene price stops falling [4][5] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 13,450 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 11,810 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,610 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,400 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. Vietnam's export of mixed rubber from January to April was 282,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [1] Tire Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Due to the 5 - 7 - day maintenance arranged by some enterprises during the "Labor Day" holiday in early May, the "Dragon Boat Festival" holiday at the end of the month was relatively stable. The number and days of all - steel tire enterprises on holiday decreased year - on - year, while those of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On June 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 50 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was - 50 yuan/ton (-5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,432 yuan/ton (+537.01), the NR basis was 192.00 yuan/ton (+58.00); the price of whole latex was 13,400 yuan/ton (+50), the price of mixed rubber was 13,500 yuan/ton (+50), the price of 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (unchanged). The STR20 was quoted at 1,670 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 1,550 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 1,900 yuan/ton (+350). - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 63.87 Thai baht/kg (-0.90), the price of Thai latex was 56.50 Thai baht/kg (-1.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 45.95 Thai baht/kg (-3.55), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 11.55 Thai baht/kg (-0.20). - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 60.80% (-1.29%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.51% (-1.23%). - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,308,358 tons (-34,097.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 609,665 tons (-4,919), the RU futures inventory was 198,720 tons (-820), and the NR futures inventory was 17,641 tons (-25,903) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On June 3, 2025, the BR basis was 225 yuan/ton (+70), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,400 yuan/ton (-300), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,200 yuan/ton (-200), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,100 yuan/ton (-200), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,188 yuan/ton (-8). - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 73.54% (-2.02%). - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,360 tons (+560), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,100 tons (+1,100) [3] Strategy - For RU, maintain a neutral stance; for NR, be cautiously bearish. For BR, maintain a neutral stance [4][5]