化工日报：EG大幅去库，但受聚酯减产拖累-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term cautious bullish on the unilateral strategy, no suggestions for inter - period and inter - variety strategies [3] Core View - EG prices are oscillating weakly due to polyester production cuts and coal price drops, with significant destocking at EG ports and the possibility of further decline in polyester load. In June, the recovery of the domestic supply side is limited, and the polyester load has declined but remains at a high level overall. Before early June, there will be few foreign vessel arrivals, and the ethylene glycol ports are expected to continue destocking. Attention should be paid to the implementation of polyester production cuts and macro - news changes [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4306 yuan/ton (a change of - 43 yuan/ton or - 0.99% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4478 yuan/ton (a change of - 10 yuan/ton or - 0.22% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 147 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 25 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was 159 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 8 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - Polyester production cuts have led to a decline in load, but it remains at a high level overall. Attention should be paid to the implementation of polyester production cuts [1][2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 62.1 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 6.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 57.7 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 3.5 tons). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 6.2 tons, and the planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 10.8 tons, which is moderately low [1]