软商品日报：受累于美元走强，棉花短线承压-20250604

Report Investment Ratings - Sugar: Sideways [1] - Cotton: Sideways [1] Core Views - Sugar: Sugarcane planting area has increased due to economic benefits, policy support, and enterprise encouragement, but early drought in Guangxi limited sugar production growth. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, and the supply - demand gap is basically stable with an expected import volume of 5 million tons. Short - term: wait - and - see [1] - Cotton: The cotton target price subsidy policy in Xinjiang is stable, increasing farmers' planting enthusiasm and slightly expanding the planting area, while the inland area has a decreasing planting area. The climate during sowing and emergence was good, with an expected yield per hectare of 2172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as last year. Total production is expected to be 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase. Cotton consumption is expected to be weak due to US tariffs, with an expected consumption of 7.4 million tons (200,000 tons less than last year) and an import volume of 1.4 million tons (100,000 tons less) [1] Data Summary Price and Spread Changes - External Quotes: US sugar rose 0.47% from $16.87 to $16.95; US cotton fell 0.30% from $66.18 to $65.98 [3] - Spot Prices: Sugar in Nanning fell 0.41% from 6115 to 6090; in Kunming, it rose 0.08% from 5945 to 5950. The cotton index 328 fell 0.11% from 3281 to 3280; cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 14450 [3] - Spreads: Sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of decline, except for CF09 - 01 which remained unchanged. Sugar and cotton basis had various changes, with sugar basis generally rising [3] Other Data - Import Prices: The cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.45 [3] - Profit Margins: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1513 [3] - Options: Implied and historical volatilities of sugar and cotton options are provided [3] - Warehouse Receipts: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased 0.93% from 31020 to 30731; cotton decreased 0.36% from 11102 to 11062 [3] Company Introduction - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale domestic futures company with a registered capital of 600 million RMB, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd. It has memberships in multiple futures exchanges [9]