煤焦早报：蒙古政局扰动，煤焦夜盘反弹-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "shock weakening", and for coking coal is also "shock weakening" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, and the focus will return to the domestic economic situation. The market is looking forward to supply - side production restrictions and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand. For coking coal, supply contraction due to environmental inspections and safety production, but high - level Mongolian coal imports still pose pressure. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors, with supply remaining flat and demand peaking and falling [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Related Information - In May, China's manufacturing PMI index was 49.5, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the repair of export orders after the China - US economic and trade agreement in Geneva [2] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Spot and Futures - The price of Mongolian 5 prime coking coal was reported at 918 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract was reported at 719 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan), the basis was 219 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 16.5 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan) [2] 3.2.2 Supply - The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 85.49% (down 0.81%), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was reported at 61.55% (down 0.81%) [2] 3.2.3 Inventory - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 4.7303 million tons (up 255,000 tons), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 2.2207 million tons (up 73,300 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8679 million tons (down 119,600 tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 7.1666 million tons (down 213,000 tons), and the port inventory was 3.0309 million tons (up 15,300 tons) [3] 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Spot and Futures - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1,340 yuan/ton (unchanged), the second - round price cut was fully implemented, the active contract was reported at 1,299 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), the basis was 141.86 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 23.5 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4] 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 75.08% (down 0.1%), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.69% (down 0.63%), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.4191 million tons (down 16,900 tons) [4] 3.3.3 Inventory - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 78,330 tons (up 5,230 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 654,930 tons (down 5,660 tons), and the port inventory was 217,180 tons (down 5,910 tons) [4] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, it is recommended to hold J09 long positions lightly and add positions after confirming the bottom. For coking coal, if the mine capacity utilization rate continues to decline, the upstream inventory pressure will gradually ease. For coke, if the cost side does not stabilize, there may be two more rounds of price cuts in June [5][6]