新能源及有色金属日报：消费环比增长放缓，碳酸锂过剩压力仍在-20250604

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The consumer - end's month - on - month growth rate is limited, while the supply - end still has an increment, resulting in a large surplus pressure. As the lithium salt price drops, it suppresses the decline of the mining end price, weakening the cost support. With more uncertainties on the consumer - end in the future, under the weak pattern of macro - sentiment and fundamentals, lithium prices may still have room to fall [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On June 3, 2025, the main contract 2507 of lithium carbonate opened at 59,800 yuan/ton and closed at 59,940 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 0.33% compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 305,161 lots, and the open interest was 259,658 lots, a decrease of 1,351 lots from the previous trading day. All contracts had a total open interest of 585,875 lots, an increase of 12,174 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 151,836 lots from the previous trading day, with an overall speculation degree of 0.76. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 33,397 lots, a decrease of 60 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, on June 3, 2025, the quoted price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,200 - 61,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the quoted price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,200 - 59,200 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - In terms of inventory, the spot inventory was 131,600 tons, including 56,200 tons in smelters, 41,600 tons in downstream enterprises, and 33,700 tons in other inventories [1]. Price Analysis The center of the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate has been continuously moving down. From the demand side, the production increase in June is extremely limited, and downstream material factories generally pick up goods through long - term contracts and customer - supplied methods. From the upstream supply side, the slight rebound in the previous disk price provided an opportunity for some non - integrated lithium salt factories to hedge and resume production, and there is an expected increase in market supply. Meanwhile, as the price of lithium ore continues to fall, the cost - side support is gradually weakening, further suppressing the lithium carbonate price [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options [3].