黑色建材日报：成本重心下移，钢价震荡偏弱-20250604

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1][2] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [3][4] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly; Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal coal: No specific rating, but price trend is weakening and then stabilizing [8] Group 2: Core Views - Steel: With the cost center shifting down and the traditional off - season approaching, steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Although the current inventory is decreasing, the demand for building materials may be suppressed, and attention should be paid to the demand performance and inventory accumulation during the off - season [1] - Iron ore: In the short term, prices are relatively firm due to high demand and slight inventory reduction. In the long term, it shows a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the timing of the shift to a loose situation depends on future consumption and supply - side policies [3] - Coking coal and coke: Coking coal has significant inventory pressure and is in a weak downward trend. Coke supply is declining, and short - term demand is under pressure. The overall supply - demand pressure of coking coal is still large [5][6] - Thermal coal: In the short term, the demand support is limited, but the price decline is slowing down as the peak season approaches. In the long term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment during the peak summer season [8] Group 3: Summary by Market Analysis Steel - Futures and spot: The main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures opened lower and ran weakly. The overall spot trading of steel was weak, with only low - price rigid demand being acceptable and speculative sentiment being poor. Building material inventory decreased, while coil inventory increased slightly [1] - Supply and demand logic: The current supply and demand of plates are both strong, and the production and sales of building materials are acceptable. However, with the arrival of the off - season and the restrictions on noise operations during the college entrance examination, the demand for building materials may be affected, and the support for steel prices is weakening [1] Iron ore - Futures and spot: The futures price of iron ore oscillated, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined slightly. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and the market trading sentiment was cold. Steel mills mainly replenished inventory on demand. The daily trading volume increased compared with the previous day [3] - Supply and demand logic: Currently, the iron ore demand is still high, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. In the long term, it is in a loose supply - demand pattern, and the future situation depends on consumption and supply - side policies [3] Coking coal and coke - Futures and spot: The futures prices of coking coal and coke continued to decline. Due to high inventory pressure at the port, the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal oscillated at a low level. The terminal demand was weak, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased at reduced prices [5] - Supply and demand logic: Coke supply is declining, and short - term demand is under pressure. Coking coal is in a situation of increasing inventory and strong market pressure on raw materials, and the supply may be affected by safety inspections in June [6] Thermal coal - Futures and spot: At the production site, coal prices were weakly stable. At the port, the inventory decreased during the holiday but was still at a high level, and the demand was average. The price of imported coal was still inverted, and the procurement enthusiasm was not high [8] - Supply and demand logic: In the short term, the demand support is limited, but the price decline is slowing down as the peak season approaches. In the long term, the supply is loose [8] Group 4: Summary by Strategy Steel - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron ore - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Coking coal and coke - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly; Coke: Oscillating; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [7] Thermal coal - No specific strategy mentioned in the text