新能源及有色金属日报：市场观望情绪浓厚，沪镍偏弱震荡-20250604

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is in a state of weak shock, with a pattern of oversupply. The short - term operation is recommended to be suspended, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on rallies. - The stainless - steel market follows the nickel price in a narrow - range shock. Due to the weakening cost support, it may continue the weak shock in the short term. The short - term operation is also recommended to be suspended, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on rallies. [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - On June 3, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 121,770 yuan/ton and closed at 121,250 yuan/ton, a change of 0.14% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 73,462 lots, and the open interest was 91,891 lots. - The main contract showed a weak shock throughout the day, with a small negative line on the daily chart. The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. - The green column area of the daily - line MACD is slowly narrowing, indicating that the short - term downward trend may be approaching the end. There was a bottom divergence at around 122,000 on the 60 - minute line on May 26, but the sharp decline before the Dragon Boat Festival broke through the support level of the bottom divergence. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel increased by 525 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all rose to some extent. The downstream enterprises had no obvious restocking demand on the first day after the festival, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see attitude. The overall spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the premium decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day. - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 22,038 (- 19.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 201,462 (1152) tons. [1][2] - Strategy - The recent spot trading of refined nickel is relatively sluggish, and the pattern of oversupply still exists. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around the 120,000 integer mark. Short - term operations are recommended to be suspended to avoid systematic risks, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on rallies. - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None. [3] Stainless - Steel Variety - Market Analysis - On June 3, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,705 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 75,047 lots, and the open interest was 85,193 lots. - The stainless - steel main contract followed the nickel price in a narrow - range shock, with a small negative line on the daily chart. The trading volume and open interest of the 07 contract both decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day. - The green column area of the daily - line MACD further expanded, indicating a greater possibility of continued weakness in the short term. - In the spot market, most of the morning quotations of merchants in the Foshan market were flat compared with the previous trading day, and individual merchants lowered the price by 50 yuan/ton. The market trading was average, and market confidence remained low. - According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically flat compared with the previous trading day, and the transaction price was mostly between 970 - 975 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,100 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was also 13,100 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 520 - 720 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday was 955.0 yuan/nickel point, a change of 1.00 yuan/nickel point. [3] - Strategy - Due to the recent decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless - steel nickel - iron continues to weaken, and it may continue the weak shock in the short term to seek a strong support position below. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,500 - 12,600. Short - term operations are recommended to be suspended to avoid systematic risks, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on rallies. - Unilateral: Conduct range operations. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None. [5]