原油日报：加拿大山火肆虐影响原油供应-20250604

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 89 cents to $63.41 per barrel, a gain of 1.42%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose $1.00 to $65.63 per barrel, a gain of 1.55%. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.86% at 469 yuan per barrel [1] - Uncontrolled wildfires in Alberta have caused an abrupt supply disruption of 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil, equivalent to 7% of the country's output, and the fire is approaching the core production area with a daily capacity of 470,000 barrels [1] - Gazprom PJSC has quietly shelved plans to develop a new natural gas distribution hub in Turkey, losing a potential opportunity to regain a foothold in the European market [1] - In the four weeks to June 1, Russia's crude oil export revenue declined again as a sharp drop in exports offset the first price increase of Russia's main export - grade crude oil in nearly two months [1] - The Director - General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said that advance bookings from Europe to North America look good, though the fourth quarter is slightly weak. IATA expects the production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to double to 2 million tons in 2025, accounting for 0.7% of airlines' fuel consumption [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Approximately 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production in Alberta has been shut down due to wildfires, and another 200,000 barrels per day is at risk. Total production losses across all crude streams could be higher [2] - On May 29, Cenovus began to safely shut down its Christina Lake plant with a daily output of 240,000 barrels. Power outages related to wildfires have delayed the commissioning of MEG Christina Lake Phase II B (70,000 barrels per day), and CNRL Jackfish's production has decreased by 40,000 barrels per day [2] Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal and macro - black swan events [4] - Upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [4]