新能源及有色金属日报：节后下游采购情绪一般，但宏观因素仍偏利好-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Option: short put @ 76,000 yuan/ton [8] Core Viewpoints - The copper concentrate processing fee remains low, and the negotiation between domestic smelters and overseas mines continues. The probability of a sharp rise in processing fees in the future is limited. Although there are concerns about the demand in the second half of the year, the probability of a significant weakening of demand is low due to the relatively stable outlook of the power sector. It is recommended to buy copper on dips for hedging, with a buying range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On June 3, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 77,920 yuan/ton and closed at 77,650 yuan/ton, a 0.06% change from the previous trading day's close. The overnight session opened at 77,910 yuan/ton and closed at 78,180 yuan/ton, a 0.50% increase from the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Situation: On the first day after the holiday, downstream consumption was weak, and the procurement sentiment declined. The price of electrolytic copper decreased during the day, and the price of low - cost goods is expected to show double - digit transactions today [2]. - Important Information Summary: The OECD lowered the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% (previously 2.2%) and for 2026 to 1.5% (previously 1.6%). Trump's administration raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% starting on the 4th. The US made a demanding list in tariff negotiations with Vietnam. The EU did not receive a letter from the US for the "best trade offer". Fed officials had different views on inflation and interest rate cuts. China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since last October [3]. Supply - Side Information - Mine End: Panama approved the maintenance plan for Cobre Panamá copper mine but not its restart, which may take 3 - 6 months. Teck Resources' Carmen de Andacollo copper mine in Chile will be shut down for about a month due to a mechanical failure, but it is expected to have no significant impact on the 2025 output forecast [4]. - Smelting and Import: Chile's copper production in April increased by 13.5% year - on - year to 463,639 tons. The US may impose tariffs on copper imports, but future copper investments may get tariff exemptions [5]. Demand - Side Information - Consumption: In 2025, China's power grid plans to invest 650 billion yuan, with 140.8 billion yuan completed in the first four months, a 14.6% year - on - year increase. The real estate market is in a slump, with investment down 10.3% from January to April. The automobile industry is divided, with traditional vehicle production down 4.6% and new energy vehicle production up 48%. The home appliance industry has high export dependence, and the electronics field may be a new highlight [6]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,600 tons to 143,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,724 tons to 31,404 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 3 was 153,000 tons, a change of 14,300 tons from the previous week [6][7]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, recommend buying on dips for hedging in the range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Arbitrage: Suspended [8]. - Option: short put @ 76,000 yuan/ton [8]. Data Table - The table shows copper price, basis, inventory, warehouse receipt, spread, and arbitrage data from June 4, 2025, compared with the previous day, last week, and a month ago [29][31][32].