镍不锈钢早报：镍铁利润回正，或影响不锈钢产量-20250604

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: Rolling short [1] - Stainless steel: Hold [1] - Zinc: Bearish outlook [3] Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Philippines has emerged from the rainy season, leading to increased nickel ore arrivals and shipments, causing a seasonal decline in nickel ore prices and reduced costs across the nickel industry chain [1]. - Domestic nickel - iron production has slightly decreased due to negative profit margins, but Indonesian nickel - iron production has grown rapidly, with a year - on - year increase of over 30% and a month - on - month increase of over 10%. Total nickel - iron supply remains in surplus [1]. - The cost of nickel in the nickel - bean - to - nickel - sulfate process is around 127,000 yuan, and demand support from downstream nickel - sulfate costs is about 126,700 yuan/ton. The profit threshold for external procurement manufacturers has dropped to 133,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Nickel - iron and stainless - steel integrated manufacturers could use nickel - iron profits to offset stainless - steel losses. However, since May, nickel - iron profits have shrunk rapidly, potentially affecting stainless - steel production. Overall demand is weak [2]. - The main operating range for nickel is between 118,000 and 133,000 yuan, with a core range of 120,000 - 127,000 yuan [2]. Zinc - From January to April, the revenue of 11,945 large - scale non - ferrous metal industrial enterprises increased by 18.0% year - on - year, and the revenue profit margin was 4.15%, up 0.39 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - During the narrow - range zinc price fluctuations, miners' per - ton profit remained around 4,000 yuan/ton. Smelters can achieve profitability with by - products. Overall zinc supply is loose [4]. - Galvanized production capacity has expanded, but utilization and output are low, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is weak. Zinc oxide production is driven by seasonal demand, with limited upside. Die - casting alloy production has increased, but downstream demand is expected to weaken. Zinc demand has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [5]. - The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. Short - term supply is stable with a slight increase, the demand peak season has passed, and manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal demand. Overall, a bearish view is taken [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Indicators - The report presents data on exchange rates (nominal US dollar index: broad, USDCNY spot exchange rate) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average [7][8][14] 2. Spot Premiums and Discounts - It shows spot premiums and discounts for various metals such as nickel, zinc, lead, and stainless steel, including domestic and LME data [9][11][15][22][24] 3. Spread Analysis - Analyzes spreads such as the monthly spread of lead and zinc futures, the spread between high - nickel iron and electrolytic nickel, and the spread between nickel sulfate and electrolytic nickel [27][28][33][35] 4. Inventory Analysis - Displays inventory data for lead, zinc, and nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME, including seasonal inventory charts [36][38][40] 5. Profit - Presents profit data for domestic zinc smelters, high - nickel iron production, nickel sulfate production, and stainless - steel production [49][51][53][55] 6. Import Profit and Loss - Shows import profit and loss data for lead, zinc, and nickel, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio for these metals [57][59][61]