申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250604

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market is expected to continue its volatile trend. Domestic oil mills' high operation and high - pressure production will accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal inventory. With uncertainties in US soybean demand and concerns about China - US trade tariffs, the short - term trend will remain volatile [2] - The oil market is predicted to maintain a volatile pattern. The supply of domestic soy - based products will gradually recover, and the inventory of soybean oil is expected to increase. The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing season with inventory accumulation. Although the recent export increase is favorable, the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists, and the inventory accumulation trend is likely to continue [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Futures Prices: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and peanut increased, while those of rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal decreased. The price changes were 0.71%, 1.69%, 0.29%, - 3.15%, - 1.11%, and - 3.04% respectively [1] - Futures Spreads and Ratios: Some spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, M - RM09, etc. have changed compared to the previous values [1] International Futures Market - BMD palm oil decreased by 1.02%, CBOT soybeans increased by 0.63%, CBOT US soybean oil increased by 1.25%, and CBOT US soybean meal decreased by - 0.07% [1] Domestic Spot Market - Spot Prices: The spot prices of some products like Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil increased, while those of rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal decreased [1] - Spot Spreads: The spot spreads between some products such as Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil have changed [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The import and crushing profits of different products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc. have different values and changes compared to the previous values [1] Industry Information - Domestic soybean supply is sufficient. By the end of May, the commercial inventory of soybeans in major oil mills had reached nearly 7 million tons. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 increased by 13.21% compared to the same period last month. Indian edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month, reaching 1.18 million tons, and palm oil imports increased by 87% month - on - month, reaching 600,000 tons [2]