中辉期货豆粕日报-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term consolidation and accumulation of momentum. The overall fundamentals are bearish, and the bullish view is treated as a technical rebound. Short - selling opportunities after the rebound can be considered [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term decline. Considering the possible improvement of China - Canada relations, caution is needed when chasing long positions [1]. - Palm Oil: Short - term rebound and consolidation. It is expected to maintain a bullish trend this week, but short - selling opportunities after the rebound should be noted due to the ongoing inventory accumulation cycle [1]. - Cotton: Weak operation. It is expected to fluctuate weakly below 70 cents in the international market, and the upward driving force of domestic cotton prices is weak in the near future [1]. - Red Dates: Short - term weakening. The market is expected to be weak this week, and attention should be paid to weather - related premium disturbances [1]. - Live Pigs: Oscillating at the bottom. The strategy is to sell high and short, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread opportunity [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - International Situation: South American soybean production is basically determined, and U.S. soybean planting has started with a progress much higher than last year and the five - year average. There is sufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and the rainfall outlook for June is normal according to CPC [1][3]. - Domestic Situation: Domestic ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are continuously increasing. As the operating rate rises, soybean meal supply will gradually ease and enter an inventory accumulation cycle. Feed enterprises have low inventories and there is a need for replenishment. The monthly average import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons. As of May 30, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.054 million tons, and the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 5.8288 million tons [3]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.11% to 2935 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price decreased by 1.55% to 2929.14 yuan/ton. There were changes in various spreads such as basis, cross - variety spreads, and cross - term spreads [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply Situation: Currently, oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have no pressure, but commercial rapeseed meal inventories are high, which is bearish for the July contract. From May to July, rapeseed imports are expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and long - term imports are expected to be low due to poor import profits from Canada. However, the possible improvement of China - Canada relations may affect the supply situation [1][4]. - Price and Spread: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 3.03% to 2557 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price decreased by 0.36% to 2616.32 yuan/ton. There were changes in basis, cross - variety spreads, and cross - term spreads [5]. Palm Oil - Inventory and Export: As of May 30, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 364,000 tons, a 7.47% increase from last week. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 30 days of May were strong, and India's palm oil imports increased significantly in May. India also lowered the import tariff on edible oils starting from May 30 [9][10]. - Price and Market Sentiment: The futures price of the main contract increased by 1.69% to 8196 yuan/ton, and the national average price increased by 2.00% to 8690 yuan/ton. The proportion of market participants looking up increased, while the proportions of those looking flat and down decreased [9]. Cotton - International Situation: As of June 1, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 66%, and about 7% of the cotton - growing areas were affected by drought. The new - crop good - quality rate was 49%. The 2024/25 Brazilian cotton production is estimated to be 3.9048 million tons, a 5.5% increase year - on - year [12]. - Domestic Situation: Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well, and the new - season production is expected to reach 7.2 - 7.4 million tons. The import of cotton resources has decreased for four consecutive times, and the domestic textile industry is in the off - season with limited order rebounds [13]. - Price and Related Data: The futures price of the main contract decreased by 0.11% to 13260 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.15% to 14558 yuan/ton. There were changes in basis, cross - term spreads, and other data [11]. Red Dates - Production and Inventory: The main contract decreased by 0.23% to 8625 yuan/ton. The growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is normal, and the physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 85 tons this week, still higher than the same period last year [15][16]. - Market Situation: The market supply in the sales area is continuous, and merchants mainly replenish for刚需. With the rise in temperature, the demand for dried fruits is expected to decline seasonally [16]. Live Pigs - Supply and Demand: The main contract decreased by 0.81% to 13510 yuan/ton. The supply pressure has not significantly improved, and both group farms and farmers are increasing the slaughter volume. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased significantly, and the demand is expected to decline after the festival [18][19]. - Price and Related Data: The national average spot price increased by 0.07% to 14650 yuan/ton. There were changes in inventory, slaughter volume, and other data [18].