中辉有色观点-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range, with strategic allocation value due to complex geopolitical and tariff situations, and central bank gold - buying expectations [1]. - Silver will follow gold's fluctuations and trade in a wide range, as global economic demand may decline and supply changes are small [1]. - Copper is recommended to be bought on dips in the short - term and is bullish in the long - term, considering strong US employment, tight global copper mines, and its strategic importance [1][5]. - Zinc is likely to have limited upside space, with a supply - increase and demand - decrease trend in the long - term, suggesting short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][8]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to the approaching off - season and supply - demand factors, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1][9]. - Nickel prices will face pressure on rebounds, with supply pressure and high inventory, and short - selling on rallies is advised [1][11]. - Lithium carbonate prices will have limited rebound space due to supply - demand imbalance and falling ore prices, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1][13]. Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - Market Situation: Tariff changes, geopolitical uncertainties, and future interest - rate cut expectations support gold prices. The US economic growth forecast is lowered, the Russia - Ukraine situation escalates, and tariff policies are complex [2]. - Strategy: Long positions can be arranged in the gold market, with position control for long - term investment. Silver will follow gold, with a short - term trading range of [8200, 8550] [1][3]. Copper - Market Situation: Overseas copper mines are in short supply, and there are risks of soft squeeze - out of inventory. The US employment market is strong, reducing recession concerns and increasing risk appetite [4][5]. - Strategy: Short - term, buy copper on dips with light positions. Long - term, be bullish on copper. The short - term trading range for Shanghai copper is [77500, 79000], and for London copper is [9500, 9800] USD/ton [5]. Zinc - Market Situation: Zinc ore supply is loosening, and downstream demand is weakening, with zinc enterprises'开工 rates falling and being affected by weak steel demand [7]. - Strategy: In the short - term, zinc has limited upside. In the long - term, short - sell on rallies. The trading range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2650, 2780] USD/ton [8]. Aluminum - Market Situation: The off - season dominates the market. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, but demand is showing signs of weakening. Alumina supply is in surplus [9]. - Strategy: Short - sell aluminum on rallies, and pay attention to inventory changes. The trading range for Shanghai aluminum is [19800 - 20500], and alumina will trade in a low - level range [9]. Nickel - Market Situation: The cost support for nickel is weakening, and supply pressure is significant. Stainless steel inventory is high, and consumption is entering the off - season [11]. - Strategy: Short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rallies, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The trading range for nickel is [118000 - 125000] [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Situation: Supply exceeds demand, ore prices are falling, and although some enterprises are reducing production, it cannot reverse the oversupply situation [13]. - Strategy: Short - sell on rallies, with a trading range of [59240 - 61000] [13].