中辉期货日刊-20250604

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Sideways [1] - L: Sideways [1] - PP: Sideways [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bullish on dips [1] - PTA: Bullish on dips [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Showing signs of stopping decline [1] - Caustic soda: Bearish [1] - Methanol: Bearish on rallies [1] - Urea: Cautiously bullish on dips [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices are rebounding strongly. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has intensified, and the upcoming summer peak season for crude oil consumption provides support [1][4][5]. - LPG: Supply and demand are both increasing, and LPG is in a sideways adjustment. The cost - end oil price is driven by geopolitical factors and the consumption peak season, and the pressure on the futures market has decreased [1][7][8]. - L: After the holiday, petrochemical inventories have increased, and there is no upward driving force in the short - term. Although the decline space is limited, there is still a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][10]. - PP: The pressure of new device production is high, and the domestic demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][13]. - PVC: The supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is a risk of continued decline in the medium - term [1][16]. - PX: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals continue to improve in May. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost [1][17][18]. - PTA: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, but the demand is relatively good for now. It is short - term bullish but there is a weakening expectation in the future, so pay attention to shorting opportunities [1][20][21]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure has been relieved, and the demand is at a high level but expected to weaken. The inventory is decreasing, and it is short - term bullish [1][22]. - Glass: The medium - term demand is shrinking, and the spot price is falling. The cost center is moving down, and the bottom - fishing is not safe [1][24][25]. - Soda ash: The supply pressure is increasing, and the rigid demand support is insufficient. The inventory is at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1][26][27]. - Caustic soda: The supply has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. The futures market is weakening [1][29]. - Methanol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1]. - Urea: The supply pressure remains, but there is support from the peak fertilizer - using season in July and the Indian tender. It shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and the inventory is relatively favorable. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.42%, Brent up 1.55%, and SC up 2.74% [4]. - Basic Logic: OPEC+ production increase meets market expectations, and geopolitical risks have risen due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Supply from Russia and Brazil is stable, and global demand is expected to increase slightly. US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories have changed [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, oil prices will fluctuate between 55 - 65 dollars due to over - supply. In the short - term, it is bullish due to geopolitical factors and may fall after the risk is released. SC focuses on [465 - 485] [6]. LPG - Market Review: On June 3, the PG main contract closed at 4074 yuan/ton, up 0.94% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [7]. - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price strengthened during the Dragon Boat Festival. Supply and demand are both increasing, with refinery production rising and PDH device demand expected to increase. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, it is bearish due to over - supply of upstream crude oil. Technically, it is sideways. The strategy is to sell call options. PG focuses on [4065 - 4130] [9]. L - Market Review: The prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and import margins were relatively stable [10]. - Basic Logic: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, but there is still pressure from new device production in the medium - term. Demand is weak in June. Petrochemical inventories have increased after the holiday [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to shorting opportunities. Be cautious about the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [11]. PP - Market Review: The prices of different contracts rose slightly, and the main contract's trading volume increased. Spot prices and production margins changed slightly [13]. - Basic Logic: Many maintenance devices have restarted, increasing supply. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and new capacity will intensify the supply - demand contradiction [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies. Pay attention to the trends of crude oil and coal prices and the progress of new capacity [14]. PVC - Market Review: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices were stable or slightly decreased. Cost and profit indicators changed [16]. - Basic Logic: Domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance scale has narrowed, increasing supply. Demand is in the off - season due to the approaching rainy season. The cost has decreased [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies. Be aware of macro - systematic risks [16]. PX - Market Review: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and processing spreads changed [17]. - Basic Logic: PX profit has improved, and domestic and overseas device loads have increased, increasing supply. PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, improving demand. Inventory decreased in April but is still high [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: PX focuses on [6510, 6680] [19]. PTA - Market Review: Futures prices fell, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [20]. - Basic Logic: PTA device maintenance is high, but there are new production plans in June, increasing supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is short - term bullish, but pay attention to shorting opportunities due to the expected weakening of fundamentals [21]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: Futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices decreased slightly. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - Basic Logic: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, relieving supply pressure. Downstream polyester load is high but expected to weaken. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: EG focuses on [4270, 4350] [23]. Glass - Market Review: Spot prices decreased, and the futures market was under pressure. The basis increased, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [24]. - Basic Logic: Macro - risk preference is low, and the medium - term demand for glass is shrinking. In the short - term, it is the off - season, and enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory. Supply is not expected to decrease due to profit [25]. - Strategy Recommendation: FG focuses on [950, 980], and it is expected to approach the 5 - day moving average in the short - term [25]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Heavy - alkali spot prices decreased, and the futures market was weak. The basis increased, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the forecast increased [26]. - Basic Logic: Supply is increasing as maintenance devices restart and new capacity comes on - stream. Demand is weak due to the decline of the glass market and the end of the photovoltaic rush. Inventory is high [27]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - Market Review: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market rebounded at a low level. The basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [29]. - Basic Logic: Supply has increased as many maintenance devices restarted. The profit of alumina has improved, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has decreased. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices [29]. - Strategy Recommendation: None provided in the given text. Methanol - Market Review: None provided in the given text. - Basic Logic: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase as the overseas arrival volume is expected to be realized. Demand is in the seasonal off - season, and inventory is accumulating [1]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rallies. Pay attention to shorting opportunities [1]. Urea - Market Review: None provided in the given text. - Basic Logic: Supply pressure remains as maintenance devices restart. Demand is in the domestic off - season but has support from the Indian tender and the peak fertilizer - using season in July. Cost is weak but has a bottom support [1]. - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips and shorting on rallies. Urea shows a pattern of "ceiling on the top and floor on the bottom" [1]. Asphalt - Market Review: None provided in the given text. - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price is bullish, and inventory is relatively favorable. Demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south" [1]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the trend of oil prices. BU focuses on [3500 - 3560] [1].