聚烯烃日报：石化库存累积，去化速率偏慢-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bearish stance on plastics for unilateral trading, and there is no recommendation for inter - term trading [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, petrochemical inventories have accumulated, and the overall destocking rate is slow, with certain pressure on the supply side [2] - Propane prices have slightly strengthened, and PDH - based PP production is in the red, leading to many PDH units being shut down for maintenance [2] - There are many PE units planned for maintenance, while PP unit operations are generally stable. Multiple new PP units are expected to be put into production in June, and previous units also have production increase plans [2] - The downstream demand for polyolefins remains in the seasonal off - peak season. Factories mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film and packaging film, as well as PP downstream plastic knitting and other industries, are all showing a downward trend, and the downstream demand is expected to remain weak [2] 3. Summaries by Catalog 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6,963 yuan/ton (+3), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6,884 yuan/ton (+9). The spot price of LL in North China is 7,050 yuan/ton (+0), and in East China is 7,100 yuan/ton (+0). The spot price of PP in East China is 7,080 yuan/ton (+20). The LL basis in North China is 87 yuan/ton (-3), in East China is 137 yuan/ton (-3), and the PP basis in East China is 196 yuan/ton (+11) [1] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 76.8% (-1.2%), and the PP operating rate is 75.4% (-1.4%) [1] - The PE oil - based production profit is 397.7 yuan/ton (-30.7), the PP oil - based production profit is 117.7 yuan/ton (-30.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 401.7 yuan/ton (+0.0) [1] 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The document does not provide specific data summaries for non - standard price differences [26][33][34] 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 363.9 yuan/ton (-50.0), the PP import profit is - 533.6 yuan/ton (+0.0), and the PP export profit is 18.3 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1] 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 13.0% (-1.1%), and the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 48.6% (-0.6%) [1] - The operating rate of PP downstream plastic knitting is 45.2% (-0.5%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 59.8% (-0.4%) [1] 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory - The document does not provide specific data summaries for polyolefin inventory [70][74][85]