国新国证期货早报-20250604

Variety Views - On June 3, A-shares' three major indices rose slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43% to 3361.98, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.16% to 10057.17, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.48% to 2002.70. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1141.4 billion yuan, 2.2 billion yuan more than last Friday [1] - The CSI 300 index strengthened on June 3, closing at 3852.01, up 11.78 [1] - On June 3, the weighted coke index remained weak, closing at 1300.3 yuan, down 14.3 [2] - On June 3, the weighted coking coal index was weak, closing at 721.3 yuan, down 22.1 [3] - Affected by the earlier rainy season improving sugar production prospects in major Asian producers, US sugar fell on Monday. Constrained by the decline in US sugar and the reduction in spot quotes, the short sellers pressured the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, which fell on Tuesday and slightly at night [4] - Due to the technical influence on the short - term decline, Shanghai rubber consolidated on Tuesday and continued to fluctuate at night [5] - On June 3, palm oil continued its recent rebound, hitting a new high in recent weeks before pulling back. The main contract P2509 closed with an upper - shadow阳线, closing at 8196, up 1.69% [5] - As of May 30, 2025 (week 22), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 364,000 tons, up 25,300 tons from last week, a 7.47% increase; down 19,500 tons from 383,500 tons last year, a 5.08% decrease. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31, 2025 were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the previous month [7] - On June 3, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to the boost from crude oil prices. As of June 1, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 67%, lower than the expected 68%; the planting rate was 84%, lower than the expected 86%. In the domestic market, on June 3, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract M2509 closed at 2935 yuan/ton, a 1.11% decrease [7] - On June 3, the live hog futures price fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2509 closing at 13,605 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decrease [8] - On June 3, the iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.14%, closing at 695.5 yuan [8] - On June 3, the asphalt 2507 main contract rose 1.22%, closing at 3482 yuan [8] - Copper prices maintained a relatively strong and volatile pattern. There were new disruptions in the mining end, and domestic smelting output continued to exceed expectations, but raw material supply was expected to decline. In June, consumption was expected to be slightly weaker, and the domestic market was expected to be in a tight balance or a slight inventory build - up [9] - The log 2507 contract opened at 765 on Monday, with a low of 759.5, a high of 770, and closed at 765, with an increase of 596 positions. The spot price was supported at 750 - 770 and faced resistance at 790 [9] - On June 3, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, the 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs were 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged [9] - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,240 yuan/ton. As of June 5, the minimum basis quote at Xinjiang's designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was 410 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 40 lots [11] - On June 3, rb2510 closed at 2928 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3052 yuan/ton. Market transactions remained at a low level, and prices were generally stable with some weakening [11] - On June 3, ao2509 closed at 2998 yuan/ton. The impact of Guinea's revocation of some mining licenses has basically ended, and the future supply is expected to be in surplus [12] - On June 3, al2507 closed at 19,860 yuan/ton. The inventory in the East China market increased slightly after the holiday, and the market supply became more abundant [12] Influencing Factors - For coke, the loss of coke enterprises slightly expanded, and the daily output decreased. The demand also decreased, and the second - round price cut in the spot market was implemented [4] - For coking coal, some mines in major production areas limited production, but the overall supply remained stable and abundant. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the inventory in the supervision area increased [4] - The ANRPC April 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in April would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, and consumption would decrease by 1.3% to 1.248 million tons. The market decline was due to increased tapping and weak tire demand [5] - For soybean meal, as the arrival of soybeans increased, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal rose. The short - term demand from feed enterprises was limited [7] - For live hogs, consumer demand was weak, and the supply was expected to increase in June, but the early - month slaughter decreased slightly [8] - For iron ore, in June, the supply was expected to increase as overseas mines rushed for quarterly output, while the terminal demand entered the off - season, and the pig iron output declined for three consecutive weeks [8] - For asphalt, the planned production in June increased significantly, but the demand was suppressed by the rainy season and was supported by the crude oil cost [8] - For copper, there were disruptions in the mining end, and domestic consumption was expected to be slightly weaker in June. The social inventory increased slightly during the holiday [9] - For logs, the port inventory increased slightly, the overall demand was weak, and the market entered the off - season [9] - For cotton, the US cotton sowing progress was slow, and the domestic cotton inventory decreased slightly [11] - For steel, market transactions were weak, and demand was expected to decline seasonally with the influence of the rainy season [11] - For alumina, the impact of mining license revocation ended, and the复产 of suspended enterprises led to concerns about future supply surplus [12] - For aluminum, the inventory in the East China market increased after the holiday, and the market supply became more abundant [12]