新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝基差收敛-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, after the Dragon Boat Festival, the social inventory increased, and the spot price declined due to the market's sensitivity to inventory changes. The supply side has no negative factors, but the sustainability of consumption may change in June. As the traditional consumption off - season approaches in China, it's difficult for aluminum prices to break through upwards without unexpected positive stimuli, and the risk of cost collapse should be watched [3]. - For alumina, the supply is increasing due to the release of new and restarted production capacity, and the decline in social inventory is slowing down. The spot price may have reached its peak. The futures price is still at a discount to the spot price, and in the long - term, the price will face pressure due to the expected supply surplus [3]. Summary by Related Content Aluminum Spot - On June 3, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,120 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 60 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 19,970 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On June 3, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,115 yuan/ton, closing at 19,860 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton (-1.12%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 183,523 lots, up 12,432 lots, and the open interest was 191,144 lots, down 4,520 lots [1]. Aluminum Inventory - As of June 3, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 519,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 367,875 tons, down 2,400 tons from the previous day [1]. Alumina Spot - On June 3, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On June 3, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3,030 yuan/ton, closing at 2,998 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton (1.39%) from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 423,143 lots, down 116,816 lots, and the open interest was 311,224 lots, down 9,045 lots [2]