五矿期货能源化工日报-20250604

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, considering the unclear results of the US - Iran negotiations, the lack of clear OPEC production - increase data, and the shale - oil bottom - support effect, it's not advisable to chase short positions even if the negotiations are successful. Short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For methanol, with weakening inland prices, stable coal, and the return of previously shut - down plants, supply pressure is high. Although downstream profits are improving, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. For cross - variety trading, consider going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, there's no clear price trend. It's recommended to observe the market due to the low basis [5]. - For rubber, the market is weak. A neutral approach with short - term trading is advised, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][9]. - For PVC, although inventory is declining rapidly, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation is expected to continue, leading to a weak - oscillation trend. However, beware of rebounds if the weak export expectation doesn't materialize [10]. - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate. The supply side may face pressure from new capacity in Q2, and the demand side is entering a seasonal off - peak [13][14]. - For polypropylene, it's expected to be bearish in June. The supply side has planned capacity releases, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [15]. - For PX, the de - stocking may slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in Q3. It's expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [17]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [18][19]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking phase, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season ends [20]. Summaries by Industry Crude Oil - Price: WTI rose $0.30 (0.48%) to $63.34; Brent rose $0.49 (0.75%) to $65.61; INE rose 18.40 yuan (4.14%) to 462.5 yuan [1]. - Inventory: At the Fujairah port, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories decreased by 4.69%, 36.81%, 18.14%, and 14.88% respectively [1]. Methanol - Price: On June 3, the 09 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 2225 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 28 yuan/ton with a basis of +50 [3]. - Supply - demand: Domestic supply will increase, and imports in June will rise significantly. The port MTO plant restarted, while traditional demand weakened [3]. Urea - Price: On June 3, the 09 - contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1761 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat with a basis of +79 [5]. - Supply - demand: Domestic production reached a record high, and short - term supply will remain high. Compound fertilizer production is ending, and agricultural demand will increase. Exports may improve slightly [5]. Rubber - Price: NR and RU continued to decline [7]. - Supply - demand: Bulls believe factors in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, while bears think macro expectations are poor, demand is flat, and new supply may increase [8]. - Operation: A neutral approach with short - term trading is recommended, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9]. PVC - Price: The PVC09 contract fell 19 yuan to 4745 yuan, and the spot price was 4670 yuan/ton with a basis of - 75 [10]. - Supply - demand: The overall start - up rate increased, while downstream demand decreased. Inventories decreased, but the supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists [10]. Polyethylene - Price: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The basis weakened by 3 yuan/ton [12][13][14]. - Supply - demand: The supply side may face pressure from new capacity in Q2, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [14]. Polypropylene - Price: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The basis weakened by 9 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply - demand: There are planned capacity releases in June, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [15]. PX - Price: The PX09 contract fell 94 yuan to 6524 yuan, and the CFR price fell 18 dollars to 824 dollars [17]. - Supply - demand: The maintenance season is ending. De - stocking may slow down in June but will resume in Q3 due to new PTA plant startups [17]. PTA - Price: The PTA09 contract fell 72 yuan to 4628 yuan, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton [18]. - Supply - demand: The supply side is in the maintenance season, and the demand side has low inventory and is expected to continue de - stocking [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Price: The EG09 contract fell 43 yuan to 4306 yuan, and the spot price fell 16 yuan [20]. - Supply - demand: The industry is in the de - stocking phase, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season ends [20].